Excel Hedging To Target Profit

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Excel Hedging To Target Profit

Postby MollyMoo » Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:41 pm

I'm not sure this is possible, but I would like to calculate my back and lay stakes given the back and lay odds and a target "greened-up" profit. Any ideas please?
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Re: Excel Hedging To Target Profit

Postby MollyMoo » Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:50 pm

Just to explain further, we are talking backing and laying a horse in a race. I know the current back odds and I want to lay it 15 ticks lower than the back odds and make a £4 profit irrespective of the result of the race. Can I calculate my back and lay stakes at those odds in order to achieve that profit?
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Re: Excel Hedging To Target Profit

Postby Captain Sensible » Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:19 pm

It's relatively simple maths, just remember your hedging calculation is just a balanced equation

Back stakes X decimal back odds = Lay stakes times X lay odds.

From that calculation you have all the details you need, from your back odds you can easily work out 15 ticks lower , there's an excel function on the site minusTicks that'll do it for you. As you want a £4 profit your lay stakes becomes (Back stakes +4)

So say you're backing at 20's, 15 ticks less is 12.5, stck those in the balanced equation and it becomes as follows, we'll call the back stakes B


B X 20 = (B+4) X 12.5
20B=12.5B+50
7.5B=50
B=50/7.5
B=6.67


So our back stake is £6.67 @ 20 and the lay stake £6.67+4=£10.67 @ 12.5
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Re: Excel Hedging To Target Profit

Postby Captain Sensible » Sun Nov 12, 2017 9:39 pm

In a simple equation it'd breakdown to

BackStakes = (TargetProfit X LayOdds)/(BackOdds- LayOdds)

And the LayStakes = BackStakes+TargetProfit
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Re: Excel Hedging To Target Profit

Postby MollyMoo » Sun Nov 12, 2017 11:17 pm

Captain Sensible, you are a star. I was trying to adapt existing formulae and swap terms from one side of the equation to the other and just got totally befuddled and ended up making it far more complicated than it is.

Thank you so much.
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