Reduction Factor (Value indicator)

[thunderfoot]

If the Reduction Factor on Horse Racing is set by Betfair and does not change, is this not a reasonable indicator of which bets are 'Value' and which are not?

For instance in the 2000 Hr race at Beverley tonight the Reduction Factor on Rasaman was 21.70. As all the RF's in a race add-up to 100%, 21.70 would equate to Odds of 4.61, yet the Odds available were 6.00, so in theory indicating 'Value'.

Or is I reading this all wrong???

By the way Rasaman won

[Captain Sensible]

The RF's are basically just the tissue price set as a percentage to 100. All depends on if you think the odds compiler who does Betfairs tissue is any good. No idea where they get their tissue prices but can't imagine they do their own so it'll probably be the same as provider as either RP /SP turftrax etc

Plenty of systems out there like the money vault that back horses where the price has halved against the morning show etc but Betfairs own data backs up the fact that drifters provide a better return than steamers so it's always going to be more profitable if the odds are higher than the implied RF odds.

The $1000 dollar question is how profitable and that all depends on how good the tissue provider is at assessing the intial probabilities of the horses winning only way to assess that is gather lots of data and see what edge is there. I'd imagine there is an edge there but also that it'd be very small overall but worth maybe following on the handicaps as these are the areas where the tissue providers have more info to price up runners

[milfor]

I investigated this for a while and the result was that the reduction factor has a very poor quality compared with Racing Post etc. If the odds and the reduction factor have different opinions about a horse then you shouldn't consider that as a value bet. Some reduction factors are completely stupid and have to be changed drastically the nearer the race comes. I have already seen reduction factors of 0.9% to be changed to 12% and so on.

[GaryRussell]

I've uploaded an example spreadsheet which extracts tissue prices from the Racing Post website.

http://gruss-software.co.uk/forum/viewt ... 4356#14356

[KevinTHFC]

Thanks for the sample code Gary.

I download the complete card and results but haven't used WinHttp.WinHttpRequest before. Always nice to see other approaches.

Kevin

[Castillo]

I've uploaded an example spreadsheet which extracts tissue prices from the Racing Post website.

Thanks for that Gary, makes it easier to establish the steamers & drifters.

Cheers
Castillo

[thunderfoot]

I've uploaded an example spreadsheet which extracts tissue prices from the Racing Post website.

http://gruss-software.co.uk/forum/viewt ... 4356#14356

I am such a novice at this coding ..... My limits are 'Recording' with a bit of editting and Data/Import External Data/New Web Query

[throwmeadisc]

It's an excellent bit of coding.... I took some time trying to decipher it last night and it has sparked some improvements and modifications to some of my projects.

Nice work Gary

Al

[bw]

I,ve downloaded this sheet and it works fine on its own, but when I put the code in my spreadsheet I get compile:error user-defined type not defined
and it highlights at line Dim tprice As Tissue

any ideas guys

[GaryRussell]

You also need to create the Tissue class.

Insert a new class module and insert the following code. You will then need to view the properties of the class module and change the name to Tissue.

Code: Select all

Public horse As String
Public price As String
Public rank As Integer

Public Property Get decimalPrice() As Double
    If price = "evens" Then
        decimalPrice = 2
    Else
        Dim f() As String
        f = Split(price, "/")
        decimalPrice = Round(Val(f(0)) / Val(f(1)), 2) + 1
    End If
End Property


[bw]

Cheers Gary

It works a treat, keep up the good work