Youtube videos

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Youtube videos

Postby vanbuuts » Mon Apr 16, 2018 4:47 pm

While searching through Youtube video's for any successful or profitable automated systems using gruss I came across this one within the most recently uploaded filter.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1nk0lnSzRxo&t=25s

Any thoughts as to why it won't / couldn't work?

It seems too good (and obvious) to be true, I have tried systems in the past that rely on in play odds for the offset bet, but not the main bet - and it can cause problems getting matched when the odds shoot down - but that seems to be compensated for.

It is reliably back tested as well (albeit over a relatively short period of time). Just wanted to gauge others opinions before giving something similar a go.
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby alrodopial » Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:34 pm

Hi, you can try it and tell us your findings
Personally I wouldn't touch it
Based on the 19%yield, this number is insane
it does not exists in real life

The "It is reliably back tested" is far away from truth
ie a horses that halves in odds (and is a selection according to the video)
usually you can not be matched at these odds (as they are now smaller) and if you get matched (now a drifter) the horse does not usually win
The aim for 5ticks higher does not mean that you will be also able to get matched at half odds

In the past I posted a file that was backing a horse at half the sp odds in the early stages of the race
not waiting for the odds to halve and then back but aiming for those that halve in running
not the same but "close"
from those that used the file what is your p/l guys using this approach?
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby vanbuuts » Mon Apr 16, 2018 9:44 pm

There is a follow on video where the amount of bets not matched is “compensated for”. This shows the yield at a more reasonable 8.6% and also shows so apparent Betfair screenshots.

https://youtu.be/IsAFz04BZDg

Just wondering why if it’s so good would it be shared? Im prepared to throw £250 or so at it. I think I could build a BOT using excel to do as suggested. Just wanted opinions of others before dipping my toe in.

The trial you speak of using halve odds sounds interesting, do you have any results from that - or are the people trialling it now winched up in the Bahamas on their luxury yacht?
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby Daywalker » Tue Apr 17, 2018 1:49 pm

By all means give it a try if you're willing to take the risk.

If a quite simple system could return c20% I don't believe it would last long, those inefficiencies are soon gobbled up. If it works out on paper then, as already said, getting matched will be the problem. Dropping the odds you'll take to get matched will clear the profit out. Raising the trigger will add losing bets. (All this is if the original video analysis is correct.)

There are no easy ways to win. People don't share winning strategies as they'd lose out. The few systems I've seen that have potential are similar to this one. A broad idea is shared but further work on selections and criteria for triggers/stakes/odds is required. And as winning margins are so small it's the fine details that make profit or loss.

D
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby vanbuuts » Wed Apr 18, 2018 9:31 pm

Hi Daywalker, if you check the 2nd video, missed bets or inclusion of losers is factored in but the yield still showed 8.5% - more than respectable.

Anyway, I decided to take the plunge today, I adjusted the staking slightly and made the stake relate to the odds with the aim of winning £25 (so higher odds meant lower the stake). I set the BOT to run through all today’s races and my £250 starting bank is now at £332.67.

Very early days, but looks promising. I guess it helped today that only one odds on favourite won, and there were quite a few mid range winners.
Maybe I should quit while ahead.

I’m thinking of a way to run it and record without actually placing bets and I couldn’t so I’m sort of glad I went in with real money. I’ll see where I am come end of the month.
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby Daywalker » Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:04 pm

Hi,

The best way to find out for sure is to try yourself.

Look forward to hearing your longer term results.

D
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby vanbuuts » Sun Apr 22, 2018 9:55 am

Going good so far, bank up to £504.72 so more than doubled in less than a week.

I’ve also been logging the “lapsed” bets and this so far only equates to less than 3%
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby KANG » Tue May 08, 2018 8:42 am

How did this pan out?
Still profitable?
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby vanbuuts » Tue May 22, 2018 11:26 am

Hi, I am still profitable. The £250 starting bank is now at £845.33 Had 2 bad days where it took a hit. ROI is around 6.2% which is not at all bad.

I am doing a fair bit of tweaking and testing as I go but the basis remains solid.
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby KANG » Sat May 26, 2018 1:37 pm

Thank's for the reply, not bad after a month!
Regards KANG
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby vanbuuts » Tue Jun 12, 2018 4:13 pm

Not sure if its my internet connection or what but the last few days have seen the bank take a hit.

I've been "watching" the odds during the race and there seems to be a delay between when the odds hit a level and the bet firing. The clock also seems to jump a few seconds from time to time aswell and I'm not sure what has caused this.

It could be a coincidence but I'm pretty sure that this recent "lag" has caused the profits to drop this week.

Anyone had any experience of laggy Excel files and how to quicken everything up a bit?
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby Captain Sensible » Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:59 pm

Kind of depends what you're doing but sometimes when you start to tweak excel files you end up saving unneccesary data all over the place depending on how your sheet works or even corrupting the file itself.

Might be worth just making a fresh sheet and just transferring your formulas across or exporting/re-importing the vba modules. I had to do it recently with a sheet that was so slow to open and I think it'd just retained so much additional data from where it imported data. It won't takes as long as you think and will rule out excel problems with the strategy.
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby alrodopial » Tue Jun 12, 2018 9:24 pm

I also have the "feeling" that prices do not update so often in play as they used to do in the last week
But also noticed that this is because of ba and not excel
I cant check any change in liquidity but maybe vacations for players started?
Any change in tv coverage , tv speed etc?
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby vanbuuts » Wed Jun 13, 2018 12:39 pm

Thanks chaps. I’ve stripped the excel file back and it appears to be a bit slicker - might be the placebo effect thou!
Will soon see how it goes today
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Re: Youtube videos

Postby vanbuuts » Fri Jun 15, 2018 10:17 am

Well since stripping the file back it seems to have done the trick. Quite often It'd take a while to link all the race tabs to sheets but now it works first time. Have also had 2 highly profitable days on the bounce so all is good :)
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