anybody ever made betfair pay long term?

[manager1]

Here's an example:

Basically I lay most of the field at bookmakers opening prices.

Can you define what you mean by this M1. Where do you get your opening prices from exactly?

cheers

Any of the online bookmakers that use fixed odds such as Ladbrokes

[knot]

So how you all doing? Me i thought i had cracked this game for two weeks and then bust. This seems to be the pattern with me, in that all my ideas work at first but eventually fail. Hope you are doing better.

[manager1]

Hi knot,

I made 25% return on investment Saturday (U.K.)

I am constantly amazed at the number of people laying horses at so high above bookmaker's prices.
Add commission on top, and there's no way anyone can win longterm.

I've seen even money favourites layed at $3.00, $3.50, even up to $4.00
That's just a recipe for disaster, no matter how much you have a set against it.

It's small wonder that only a small percentage of punters can make a profit from laying horses on Betfair.

I'm no smarter than the next guy, in fact there are many smarter by miles than me. But just applying simple maths and logic, anyone can make the same percentages, if not more than me.

There were horses that were $4.00 with ladbrokes and people were laying them @ $6.00 right up to $7.00.

I put my lay bets in at $3.75, $3.50, and $3.25 - all of them got matched just before the off.

Some people had layed these horses up to 80% over the odds (including commission)
I had layed them at 15% under the odds including commission.

That's a 95% difference!!!

[manager1]

The easiest wayto make money from Betfair is to follow a proven template, anything you can lay 10% under bookies prices, or back 100% over bookies prices means you have to win longterm.

Now, because of the weight of money factor, you won't win as often, the longer priced horses have a very low strike rate, the shorter priced lays have a high win strike rate, but in the long run you will win, when everyone else is wondering where the went wrong

Good luck in the future.

[Mistermind]

manager1, your partial greening reduces your liability, so that you basically take in 102 units and pay out 100 units, making a profit of 2 units. This only works if you manage to lay most of the field, and you have excel tools to lay say 12 horses to stakes in the correct proportions so that whichever horse wins your payout is the same.

You appear to be based in Aus but talk about Ladbrokes prices (you burning midnight oil?). Presumabley you totally igore form study and avoid any attempt to lay each horse at the lowest odds the market will stand, say for you 10 minutes before the off in UK?

Any layer who knows too much, or has a preconceived outcome, or try too hard to wait and wait to lay at the lowest price, would come a cropper, through failing to lay the field, thus ending up with a lopsided book.

[manager1]

manager1, your partial greening reduces your liability, so that you basically take in 102 units and pay out 100 units, making a profit of 2 units. This only works if you manage to lay most of the field, and you have excel tools to lay say 12 horses to stakes in the correct proportions so that whichever horse wins your payout is the same.

You appear to be based in Aus but talk about Ladbrokes prices (you burning midnight oil?). Presumabley you totally igore form study and avoid any attempt to lay each horse at the lowest odds the market will stand, say for you 10 minutes before the off in UK?

Any layer who knows too much, or has a preconceived outcome, or try too hard to wait and wait to lay at the lowest price, would come a cropper, through failing to lay the field, thus ending up with a lopsided book.

I'm not trying to lay the field for a book.
I'm laying any horse that comes in lower than bookies prices, usually only one or two per race.
Yes,I work nightshift to take advantage of the liquidity UK racing offers.
It's not the book that matters, it's the average price you lay the winners at.

[jackhu1k]

Here's an example:

Basically I lay most of the field at bookmakers opening prices.
Some will get matched, some won't.
Of the one's that get matched, some will continue to firm in the market and they are left untouched.
Some will drift, so with those horses I place a back bet on them and use the hedge feature to lock in a profit.
This reduces the liability for the horses that firm.
Here is an example from last night (yesterday) where it worked superbly in a small field and only one horse wasn't matched.

Princely Hero $52.63 layed @ $1.90
Rolyn Rock $26.67 layed @ $3.75
Dutch Bullet unmatched
Freedom At Last $7.69 layed @ $12.00

Princely Hero $52.63 backed @ $2.06
Rolyn Rock $26.67 backed @ $3.85
Dutch Bullet unmatched
Freedom At Last $7.69 backed @ $13.50

After greening up on each of the matched runners, this gave me a no risk profit of $5.63 on all runners, even Dutch Bullet which was never matched for any amount.

Normally however, there would always be a runner that was laid and unmatched on the backing side.
Therefore the $5.63 profit from greening up on the other runners comes off the liability of the lay bet of Dutch Bullet, effectively reducimg the lay odds.

I haven't chased any prices at any time, I put the lay bets up and what's matched is matched.
The only decision I make, is when to back bet on the laid horses, but this is just when there is a profit to be had, and I only back bet on longer priced horses when there is a unit profit to be had.

Hope this helps.

How do you decide what amounts to lay at please? Also is this still working well for you?

[Günter]

Yes,I work nightshift to take advantage of the liquidity UK racing offers.

Good on you, mate. I came here one year ago, and just can't make it until the UK races. My forehead is on the keyboard before the first race starts.

Have you checked if your system would be working with the dogs as well? I might make it for the first 6 dog races, before I fall asleep.

[mantas779]

I use also the method of Manager 1 , very succesfully for a year now.
Only with a different aproach.
I only trade 1horse above 100 till like 800 , as much as possible.
try to lay them and put in back offers. must of them wiil walk away as the favorites firm up.

You need more then 100 euro to start.
But you will be flat at the start, and can use all your cash to trade the next race.
I am a liqidity provider, thats what they call it at the future exchanges.

With BA you will make a garenteed profit. Only you must not be greedy.
After a year doing this i have nearly enough to do it for a living. I want to start market making
in more products like soccer. And anybody already checked out the new binaries and spread betting ?
Is it possible with BA?

[burrah]

Slightly off topic.
I live in Australia and we are banned from gambling in in running. Yup, Banned is the word that the pop-up uses when you try and bet. With the new Betfair interface we are now able to place a bet before the jump and and leave it live in running (I suppose we should be thankful for small mercies from our masters)
The point is that no one here has experience of in-running strategies, can anyone think of an angle for this limited situation?
Also with the near and far SP prices being displayed, is there any useful marked information in them?
Last night a horse showing A$10.50 back price had a far SP price of $2. It romped it in.

[PeteB]

As I understand, the far price gives you the ratio of SP backer and layer moneys. So for a far price of 2, there were lots of SP backers, and few SP layers. Whereas on the exchange you had layers willing to lay out to 10.5.
The near price gives the expected SP price, and factors in the unmatched exchange bets - if there are more SP backers than layers, and exchange layers are willing to lay up to 10.5, then the near SP must have been way above 2 so as to match some of the exchange layers?

For the in-running thing, the interesting question would be whether you can cancel bets in play. If so, you can load up the market where you hope to get matched, and still pull bets you don't want as things unfold. No delay on canceling bets either.

[manager1]

Yes you can cancel in-play, this is how I have to trade "in-play"

As we are banned from in-running access, I have to put all phantom bets in the market before the off and cancel the one's I don't want in play.

You gotta be lightening quick though

For the record in-play is the best thing ever for us Aussies, now 99% of all my stuff is done this way.

[Bezza]

The Pom's go something right then?

[paulp62]

Manager


I have been trying something similar to you by posting bookies odds say 30 minutes before the off and see what gets taken. I then tick offset (usually 2 ticks) and then see if "back" matched either in running or before the off!

Are you allowing horses that are layed to go "in running" for the "back" bet or do you leave the lay bets as they are?

I guess like me you are exposed to the horse that gets hammered down and they do quite often win.

By using the tick offset approach I can be left with one horse where the back bet does not get matched which goes on to win.

Any more advice to offer??

Thanks

[PYTELIUM]

Manager

when the live shows come through,you place a lay bet on all the runners at that time.

Most wont get matched...those that that do will be those that shorten in the live market..

say a horse opens 3/1 ..you put up 4.0..bet matched ..

the horse goes off at 2/1..this is the price that reflects its probability of winning not 3/1...

since 40% of winners shorten,30% stay the same and 30% drift(approx figures) I cant see how this works...

you will be matched on winners and unmatched on losers disproportionately..