Stop Loss question

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Stop Loss question

Postby bolpx001 » Wed Mar 14, 2018 1:34 am

Hi, I wonder if anybody can throw some light on a stop loss issue I had, All my betting is automated and my system placed a lay bet on Dis Gift at Southwell at 5pm with a stop loss. Dis Gift went on to win the race so the lay part of my bet was a loser, but the stop loss never fired. I checked for lapsed bets on Betfair and in there I see a Back bet for Dis Gift with requested odds of 2.02 for €5.34. This is a new system I am testing and the idea of a stop loss is central. As always any help, advice or comments greatly appreciated - best regards Paul
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Re: Stop Loss question

Postby MarkRussell » Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:06 am

Hi,

Are you saying the Stop Loss didn't fire or didn't get matched?
Because you mention that there was a Back bet in lapsed bets?

Regards,
Mark
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Re: Stop Loss question

Postby bolpx001 » Thu Mar 15, 2018 2:21 am

Hi Mark
The bet fired OK, It was a lay bet (LAY-IP-SL70P) however the stop-loss element ended up as lapsed. I have placed about 20 of these type of bets and the stop-loss fired on seven of them with no issues. However the Dis Gift stop-loss lapsed. Normally I would expect if a horse won to see a stop-loss fire, by placing a back bet to off set some of the lay bet but on this occasion it lapsed. - best regards Paul
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Re: Stop Loss question

Postby vanbuuts » Thu Mar 15, 2018 12:52 pm

Surely this is just a case of the horses back bet getting fired and by the time it had entered the market the odds had fallen below and never reached back up to the level of 2.02?

Happens quite often, a horses odds will change with great volatility towards the closing stages of a race and will quite often mean that TO or SL bets go unmatched
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Re: Stop Loss question

Postby bolpx001 » Thu Mar 15, 2018 8:00 pm

Thanks vanbuuts :)
You think the odds reached 2.02 and the stop-loss kicked in looking to Back at 2.02 but by the time the bet was placed in the market, the odds had dropped say to 2.00 or less and as my Back bet was looking to 2.02 it was never matched :(
Funny how sometimes the obvious never clicks. This raises the question of how can I be assured my stop-loss is matched? An obvious way is to make the stop-loss look for smaller odds say 1.01 but I suspect some would not like that idea; perhaps it could be an option or a setting? Other than that it could be a question of monitoring the odds and placing the stop-loss automatically via Excel once the odds were met but I suspect having the stop-loss placed via BA would be quicker and at the fast end of a race, with rapid fluctuation of odds and possibly low liquidity, this might not be a great idea. Thanks again vanbuuts you have given me much to think about - best regards Paul - PS any comments or advice welcomed
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Re: Stop Loss question

Postby vanbuuts » Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:39 pm

I would say that is precisely what is happening. I have been there before.

You could use 1.01 - this will almost certainly mean that any calculated edge you might have found will be eroded by the lower odds you are prepared to accept.

The problem with setting fixed odds as you are, they will generally only be matched as the horses odds drifts right out - so your back bet will get matched when you'd be better off not having a match as the initial lay bet would have won without it
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