Level Stakes Profit - and the equilvence in Lays

[Fixador]

hi all, any maths bods about , i have gotton myself confused . This is a formula i use for calculating Level Stake Profit (LSP ) - as follows:-

%Strikerate x AvgWinOdds = 100 % for Break even ( 2.0 x 50% = 100% = Breakeven )

i can manipulate this formula for LSP :-

divide through both sides by %Strikerate gives:-

AvgWinOdds = 100 % / %Strikerate

Subtract ( 100% / %Strikerate) from both sides gives :-

0 = AvgWinOdds - ( 100%/ %Strikerate )

where the zero ( 0 ) is breakeven. So for LSP :-

LSP = AvgWinOdds - ( 100%/ %Strikerate )

This fine for BACKING, but how do i calculate LSP ( if there is such a thing ) for LAYING - or have i gone off in the wrong direction ?

cheers

[Fixador]

Going back to the orginal formula:-

AvgWinOdds x %Strikerate = 100%

then > 100% is a profit , and <100% is a loss

duhhhh ! brains gone dead again - how can i translate this into a profit for LAYS

ok, for LAYS the above formula - desired outcome is <100%

So jumping backwards

LSP ( LAYS ) = (100% / %Strikerate) - AvgWinOdds

and

LSP ( BACKS ) = AvgWinOdds - ( 100% / Strikerate )


That Lays (LSP ) looks odd though - what the blazes is the term AvgWinOdds doing in there ???? And the Strikerate - is this Win Strikerate ??? or Loose Strikerate ?

[Fixador]

I hate this - where is everyone ? I am having to work this - the hard way - ie, by myself

Ok, the above formula is valid for LAYS, but it is based on unlimited lay liability

Agghh ! now i am getting closer to what i am really after.........

HOW CAN I MODIFY THE FORMULA TO LIMIT MY LIABILITY WHEN LAYING ?

that is if the odds = 2.0 , i stake 1pt, but if the odds = 4.0 , i only stake 1/(4-1) = 0.333 pts , so with this, if the runner wins - i loose 1 pt, if the runner looses - i gain 0.333 pts

[Spud]

I'm assuming that you are looking to make the same profit (should your bet win) whatever the actual odds of the selection might be and as you're happy with your formula for backing....

If that is the case, then laying a horse at 2/1 would be the same as backing a horse at 1/2, laying at 4/1 is the same as backing at 1/4, laying at 1/3 is the same as backing at 3/1 etc. So you can use the same formula for laying as you do for backing.

[Fixador]

hi Spud,

Yes, you have got the idea. But i am not happy with it - ie, forcing my liabilty to be always 1 pt, since profit drops off rapidly , ie at odds=4.0 profit becomes 0.333. This is too severe a drop off.

Cant help likening this to , by manipulating the stake, i am 'forcing' the win odds to the equilvance of = 2.0 at all times - ie lay liabilty = 1 pt

How would i calculate my stake, if i were to 'force' the win odds to the equilvence of = 3.0 , thereby limit my liabilty to 1 pt irrespective of the actual odds ( i thinking here actual odds > 4.0 )

i'm stuck again !

[Fixador]

ok, i can see that to limit my liability with a Lay , i can adjust the liability as follows:-

Lay Limited liability Stake = Liability limit pts / ( odds -1 )

where : Liability limit , say =1 for the prior posts, but could be 2, or 3

But how to feed it back into the orginal formula of :-

LtdLLP ( LAYS ) = (100% / %Strikerate) - AvgWinOdds

notice , i have changed fro LSP to LtdLLP ( LtdLLP = limited liability LAY profit ) - jeepers , what a mouthful !

That term - 'AvgWinOdds' - the average has changed ( reduced a lot , just with the liability limit doubling = 2 ) - BUT HOW TO CALCULATE IT !