chase losses formula

[knot]

anyone know it is possible to chase your losses using excel? if so would it be based on your balance? would like to hear any ideas please.

[PeteB]

Best idea would be not to chase losses, unless your aim is to empty your account - you want to be staking according to your estimated edge on the current event, not according to whatever happened on a completely different previous event...

[GeorgeUK]

I agree with Pete.

It's not a question of chasing losses, this will send you to the porhouse, but money management.
If you can make a profit with basic stakes, varying the amount staked either related to accumulated profit or rating of individual selections is more profitable. It all depends on the strikerate what your options may be.

If you have a very high strike rate, you could try a ratchet system.
For a low strike rate, depending on the odds you get and that basic staking will give a profit, you could try basic stake + % or sqr rt of profit.

[MarioArt]

I agree with Pete.

It's not a question of chasing losses, this will send you to the porhouse, but money management.
If you can make a profit with basic stakes, varying the amount staked either related to accumulated profit or rating of individual selections is more profitable. It all depends on the strikerate what your options may be.

If you have a very high strike rate, you could try a ratchet system.
For a low strike rate, depending on the odds you get and that basic staking will give a profit, you could try basic stake + % or sqr rt of profit.

what it that?

[GeorgeUK]

Basically, the ratchet system allows the user to keep the advantage of profits gained while minimizing the reduction in stakes because of the occasional loss which may dent the current profit and therefore all future profits.

eg
If you are making a profit, you keep betting 2% of your bank.
If you experience a loss, the bank will decrease, but with the ratchet, the amount you wager isn't reduced until your bank has reduced by say 25%
Then you restart the sequence from your 75% of bank, betting your normal 2%

This way when you win and your bank moves up, the amount staked either stays the same or moves up until a 25% loss is reached.

I first came across this after it was mentioned on punterslounge by "Maria". I took a bit of a flaming as when the people on the thread were discussing how she managed to make 3k into 100k in a year, i asked "really?".
http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/show ... hp?t=34029
I'd never heard of her or the forum that she had posted on. I think she initially thought i was taking the mick and she got into a bit of a strop. I'd never heard of this ratchet system, eba (when i googled it it just came up with ebay which was why i queried it on the PL thread), or Maria.

All done and dusted now, but here's Maria's much better explanation. Please note however that Maria, quite obviously, does not want to share her system - which was done a while ago now. And please heed her warnings about why the ratchet system is not for everyone. She designed the staking especially for her system and she knows what she is talking about!!!. The same technique may work on others, but they will need to be close to the strikerate she had and ALWAYS backtest the staking on at least a few months worth of data.

http://www.expertbettingadvice.co.uk/fo ... ic=18713.0 It's a long thread, but a good read.

[KevinTHFC]

If anyone is interested Maria is aregular poster and moderator on Masseys forum.

Kevin

[Shaun]

I ws planning on reading her rather large thread, but almost 200 pages was a bit much.

I understand the staking and is similar to percentage of bank non reducinf but with the safety brake of 35% very nice indeed.