The maths of a lay ladder.?

[hughsiepops]

Morning

I've been playing around with a few ideas, and now I would like to see how effective using recovery staking with the selections would be. Ideally I'd like to be able to see how many levels of recovery my bank could handle based on the initial stake. I guess it's a combination of the % of bank and a recovery staking approach in that I would like a guide as to what my initial stake should be based on the current size of my starting bank taking into account the number of recovery bets I would expect. As the bank increases (hopefully.!), so would the initial stake.

Unfortunately I currently have my maths wrong when it comes to working this out for myself. Despite searching the WWW under 'staking plans', 'recovery staking', 'lay ladder' etc for an example spreadsheet to download (Or even an explanation of how the maths work) I can't find one, so I was hoping someone might be able to help me out ..

Eg. I would like to achieve an AIM of £2 per race, and I would like to recover my previous loss completely on the next bet

I thought the maths would look like this ..
BET 1, STAKE 2.00, ODDS 4.6, LOSS 7.20
BET 2. I now multiply my loss (7.20) by 1.07 to account for 5% betfair commission, so my next stake would be : (7.20 x 1.07) + 2 = 9.70.
BET 3. Multiply my loss (32.99) by 1.07 to account for 5% betfair commission, so my next stake would be : (32.99 x 1.07) + 2 = 37.30
BET 4. Multiply my loss (130.56) by 1.07 to account for 5% betfair commission, so my next stake would be : (130.56 x 1.07) + 2 = 141.70
.. I would like to see the effects of recovery upto 10 levels.

In brief my attempt looks like this

BET, STAKE, ODDS, LOSS
1, 2.00, 4.6, 7.20
2, 9.70, 4.4, 32.99
3, 37.30, 4.5, 130.56
4, 141.70, 4.2, 453.44

But a friend ran these through a lay ladder calculator he has and told me that these calculations were way off and should look more like this ..

BET, STAKE, ODDS, LOSS
1, 2.00, 4.6, 7.20
2, 9.20, 4.4, 31.28
3, 40.48, 4.5, 141.68
4, 182.16, 4.2, 765.07

Would anyone be so kind as to highlight my error with the maths

Thanks
Hughsiepops

[pugs]

If you are aiming to fully recover your losses bet 3 would be,

Bet 1 loss (7.20) + Bet 2 loss (34.92) + commission +2 = 47.07

Unless I have misunderstood you.

[pugs]

Sorry didn’t notice odds of 4.4 so yes second bet loss 32.98 so......

Bet 1 loss (7.20) + Bet 2 loss (32.98) + commission +2 = 47.07.

But you do need co compound your losses, Bet 1 + Bet 2 + Bet 3 and so on.

[PeteB]

Hopefully this is already looking scary enough to stop you doing it that way!

On the assumption that you will at some point have a string of losses (even if it's only 3 or 4 or 5), do you want to use an approach that empties your bank when that happens? Remember you can only make money if you have money in your account!

See here for some other staking approaches - especially the ratchet approach:
http://www.gruss-software.co.uk/forum/v ... php?t=1691

[KevinTHFC]

If you wanted to win £2 per race your first stake would need to be £2.11.
If it does not oblige you will need to win £11.60 on the next race. This is made up of the £2 you didn't win on the first race, the £7.60 you lost on the first race and the £2 target for the second race. At odds of 4.4 this would require a stake of £12.21. If this does not win the target fo the third race now becomes £41.51 + £6 = £47.51 and so on