Laying the Big odds outsiders - Any free stats available?

[mikefoxnaps]

Has any one had any success laying horses over say 40.00 with a system?
I'm tying to set up a spreadsheet which lays a max liability over however many horses at say a min 40 and a max 100.
The sheet works but does anyone know how many of these long priced runners actaully win? I have a feeling that its less than 1 in 40 times for instance.
Is free data / Stats available?
has anyone run a system based on long outsiders ?


mike.

[I'll Get Me Coat]

http://data.betfair.com/

It will be fiddly as it is all horse races from all countries with place markets and in running odds. You'll need to import the files to Access.

[mikefoxnaps]

Thanks for that , I'll give it a try.

mike.

[sjaak1943]

From Adrian Massey's side:

Odds >28/1 only 0.9% win, odds >66/1 only 0.3% win in English horseracing.

Sjaak

[Roger]

I would offer a warning about this practice, I have tried it. Firstly, any horse over 40/1 will have a vastly inflated price on Betfair. So your strike rate has to be much better than you might think, and your liability is very high for the stake you can get on. And when it bites, it bites that much harder.

[laffo16]

some tipster proofing site tip-exchange.co.uk, racing-index provide average odds of total bets, maybe these tipers can give you an idea of what your looking for.

[thunderfoot]

From 712,831 horses over the past 8 years or so, there were 105,261 horses at SP Euro odds of 41.00 or more, of which 178 were 41.00 winners; 267 were 51.00; 122 were 67.00; 6 were 81.00; 59 were 101.00; 1 was 126.00; 1 was 151.00 & 2 were 201.00 ..... approximately!!

[thunderfoot]

...... also see http://www.punterslounge.com/forum/f21/ ... all-34245/

[Shaun]

It is not so much the winners but also getting it layed, for this type of system to work you need to be able to lay all runners over this price, in some races thats just not possible.