Trader247 blog

Discuss anything related to using the program (eg. triggered betting tactics)

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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Sun Jun 25, 2017 10:50 pm

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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:44 pm

I've added a post regarding a rule change that happened 1st July 2017 regarding Aus turnover charge. I've included a list of tracks as well as a link to the Excel file that Betfair forwarded to me.

https://trader247.wordpress.com/2017/07 ... rge-again/
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Mon Jul 03, 2017 11:50 pm

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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby xraymitch » Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:51 am

Hi Daywalker,

Just wanted to say I enjoyed your blog, so much so, that I got sidetracked and ended up spending over an hour this morning checking it out.

From your March 17 entry, can you enlighten me as to what Steve meant when he spoke about ?

"...but you do seem to be more interesting in cultivating some cut price Cassini blog personna than your bots for the time being."


Steve also spoke about:

"I did consider writing a much more in depth reply re:value and how to assess it"


I would be very interested in reading Steve's in depth response and I will post a request on your blog asking if he is prepared to contribute.

Thanks 8)
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Tue Jul 04, 2017 9:27 pm

Hi Xraymitch,

I'm glad you enjoy reading the blog but do hope I haven't distracted you from something more important :shock: !

The exchange with Steve came after a run of negative comments (not from Steve), which I didn't publish, and mostly from people using tor to disguise their IP address. I felt his comment, at the time, was more finger wagging than helpful discussion. I may have responded differently had I not had the previous comments. Anyway, it's there and available to read.

His charge of copying Cassini, of the world's most read sports trading blog - Green All Over, has some truth behind it. But if he'd been keeping up with that blog, he would have seen one of my comments over there saying I would take on the style of responding to comments in a blog post, as opposed to replying under each comment, because it's a good idea. This brings comments into the discussion. Many blog visitors don't read comments, especially those left on posts that are down the list or old.

I would welcome further comments from Steve. I wasn't saying his points on value were wrong, just the specific point he'd made "Every bet you place with a bot should be sent because you believe it to be value at that time and it should be allowed to stand on it’s own merits." I disagree with this for my bots.

Please feel free to comment on the blog whenever you like.

Thanks
T
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Tue Jul 04, 2017 11:30 pm

Don't miss the post above!! (If you haven't already read it.)

I've added a new post to the blog as well.

https://trader247.wordpress.com/2017/07 ... g-and-nsw/
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Deestar » Wed Jul 05, 2017 1:41 pm

Speaking of Cassini. No updates on his blog or twitter feed for a while. Hope it's simply a holiday as he is well worth reading.
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:18 pm

Hi Deestar,

I too hope he's OK. Over a month without a post after all the talk about daily hit counts. Curiously though, and I know he actively manages every comment to his blog, yesterday a comment was published on his last post. Have a read of that. Is it a rogue comment? Or a message from a changed man? Mysterious.

T
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Deestar » Thu Jul 06, 2017 12:42 pm

Looks rogue to me.
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Tue Aug 08, 2017 10:29 pm

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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Sat Aug 12, 2017 9:22 am

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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Thu Sep 07, 2017 11:07 pm

Here's a quick post about streaming bandwidth -

https://trader247.wordpress.com/2017/09/07/vps-data-usage-streaming/
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Sun Sep 10, 2017 10:07 pm

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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:57 pm

Hope you're all well.

2017 review added.

https://wordpress.com/post/trader247.wordpress.com/3588
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby negapo » Mon Jan 29, 2018 3:51 pm

Hi Daywalker

Tried to comment on the blog post that Steve and you had that interesting discussion but wasn't able.
I wanted to try to add something to the discussion, here were my thoughts:

This is a very interesting issue that Steve brought up, whether you should always trade on what i call holding value. I think Steve is right when saying that you should always buy value, but in the broader sense, like the one Daywalker defined, being a positive statistical expected value on the trade and not necessarily on the bet.
The classical example is the one Daywalker made, for instance, you know the true/fair value of an odd is 2.40. The odd is trading at 2.30 so (excluding commission from the discussion for now) you would make money laying the selection. But what if you know that, by some sort of cognitive bias, with a 95% probability bettors will take that odd to 2.00 in the next hour and for the remaining 5% probability the odd will go to 2.40. Then, with this scenario, its more profitable to back the selection at 2.30 and then close the trade later at 2.00 (i can make the demonstration if someone finds it useful).

There are other scenarios when the bet itself doesn't hold the value but the trade does like when arbing between markets. There are other complex scenarios when the bet has value but the trade becomes more valuable at some point in time. Imagine that a selection is trading at 2.40 and the fair value is 2.10. If you back the selection at 2.40 you will be paid 1.40 - Commission on (1/2.10) 47.6% of the times and lose 1 unit on (1-47.6%) 52.4% of the times. If the commission is 5% the expected value of this bet is 11% (or 11 cents per pound/euro committed).
So you bet 1€ on the selection at 2.40 hoping the Schrodinger cat is alive and waiting for your statistical 0.11€. Meanwhile the odd drifts to 2.10 and you start to think you will be better of if you close out the trade. If you do the math, its true. If should be able to lay 1.143€ at 2.10, making a locked gross profit of 0.143€ which means a net profit of (0.143€ * (1- 5%)) = 0.136€. That's a 24% improvement on your PL, and that's a lot of money at the end of the year.

As i said above, i do agree that you have to have an edge on the moment you open your trade, and i wanted to add another argument. Everything being equal you should always trade on things that have holding value because in case you cannot dump / close the trade you are left with something valuable. So it's better to trade and speculate on used cars, and if you are left with one of them you can ride yourself to a pub, then on lite coin, that if you are left with some you don't even know what to do with it.
The same applies to trading on bets.

As to the question of automated vs. discretionary, i also hold strong views on that, ill try to comment on that later.
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Sports betting software from Gruss Software


The strength of Gruss Software is that it’s been designed by one of you, a frustrated sports punter, and then developed by listening to dozens of like-minded enthusiasts.

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