Trader247 blog

Discuss anything related to using the program (eg. triggered betting tactics)

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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Spike » Sun Feb 25, 2018 6:05 pm

Daywalker - as far as the maths/logic goes Captain Sensible has it right.

Looking at the same thing from a slightly different perspective:

You believe that your opening bets have value (even if you don't realise it), that's why you open the position. Believing that that the price will move in your favour is effectively the same as believing that it has value because we know that prices trend towards true value. Of course it doesn't trend towards true value in every case but that's neither here nor there. It goes that way on average and in betting it's the average that matters.

If you didn't believe that the opening bets had value you wouldn't open the position so why close it without the same belief?

You CHOSE to open your position because you thought it was a good bet but you closed it because you felt you had to. If you're going to do that you may as well open because of some arbitrary self imposed rule as well.

Greening/redding out makes people feel clever but usually it's just throwing away returns. You might prefer drawing a smoother graph but you can't buy anything with a line, you need money for that. If the scary spikey line means you get more money then that's the one you want. In time when you've gathered more results that line will look just as smooth anyway - it'll just have steeper gradient.

The optimum approach is to abandon the whole idea of 'opening' and 'closing' and just take whatever value bets you can wherever they appear.
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby bolpx001 » Wed Feb 28, 2018 1:55 am

I am not sure that people will ever totally agree on this but what matters is profit in the long term. I was following a system of backing and laying and making a decent return but after about a year I thought that I might do better. I noticed that the lay side of things were making a small loss but the BACK side of the bets were making a very good return so I decided to abandon the LAYs and just do the BACKs. Well sods law kicked in and the win ratio of the BACKS plummeted and the LAYs sored ( kept track of them even though they were not bet) Initially I though just variance but after six months (I'm a slow learner) I went back to my old BACK/LAY system and have had a nice return since. I haven't done a root and branch examination since I returned to my old way of doing things because a)it has only been about four months b) I have been mad busy c) my system is making money. The point I am trying to make is that value is very had to define and can only truly be seen in hindsight. What is important is the quest for value and good ideas, rather like a successful gold prospector - he has a good idea of where the Gold is but there is no certainty and he needs a bit of luck in digging it out. - best regards Paul
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Tue Apr 03, 2018 8:15 am

Daywalker
 
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Tue May 22, 2018 11:47 pm

Daywalker
 
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Tue Feb 25, 2020 11:46 am

Hi All,

I'm trying trading again and have added some posts to my blog -

https://trader247.wordpress.com/blog/

D
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Thu Mar 05, 2020 12:43 am

Daywalker
 
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Mon Mar 09, 2020 10:40 am

Hello traders,

I've added a new post

https://trader247.wordpress.com/2020/03 ... ng-errors/

D
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:49 pm

I've added a post on the new free data offer from betfair

https://trader247.wordpress.com/2020/03/26/free-data/

D
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Tue Jun 16, 2020 10:12 am

Daywalker
 
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Fri Jun 19, 2020 7:58 am

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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Thu Jun 25, 2020 12:02 am

Hi,

Popped a little post on the blog

https://trader247.wordpress.com/2020/06 ... -into-red/
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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:58 am

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Re: Trader247 blog

Postby Daywalker » Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:07 am

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Sports betting software from Gruss Software


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