Dutch Betting Question

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Dutch Betting Question

Postby SWV » Sat Oct 21, 2017 10:21 am

Is it possible to set up dutch betting with a maximum stake?

For example maximum stake is £100 and the profit is determined by the stake(100) and the odds.
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Re: Dutch Betting Question

Postby osknows » Sat Oct 21, 2017 3:21 pm

Dutch betting can be solved using simultaneous equations, for example dutching 3 runners to a target profit would give 3 equations

(o1-1)s1 - s2 - s3 = P
(o2-1)s2 - s1 - s3 = P
(o3-1)s3 - s1 - s2 = P

where on is odds, sn is stake and P is target profit.

If you mean you want to set one or more of s1, s2 or s3 to 100 and solve then yes this is possible (it may not always give positive stakes). Otherwise you can solve anyway and check that s1, s2 and s3 don't exceed 100.

The above can be solved for any number of runners, lookup Google "solve simultaneous equations using matrices". All of the following can solved using the same method; back target profit, lay target profit, back target liability and lay target liability.
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Re: Dutch Betting Question

Postby SWV » Thu Oct 26, 2017 4:03 pm

Hi very interesting. How would you calculate this if there was no target profit but a target stake?

Thank you
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Re: Dutch Betting Question

Postby osknows » Thu Oct 26, 2017 7:07 pm

If by dutching to a target stake you mean dutching to a target liability, below is example based on 3 dutch back bets

We already know normal dutch staking to target profit is

(o1-1)s1 - s2 - s3 = P
(o2-1)s2 - s1 - s3 = P
(o3-1)s3 - s1 - s2 = P

And liability is just the sum of all the stakes, so target liability L is

L = s1 + s2 + s3

the original equations can now be rearranged as

o1s1 - P = L
o2s2 - P = L
o3s3 - P = L

then just solve these simultaneous equations to get the stakes which will give a equal profit against teach runner if it wins and if all three lose the target liability.
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Re: Dutch Betting Question

Postby SWV » Thu Oct 26, 2017 9:42 pm

I'm clearly a div as i cannot get me head around these equations.


(o1-1)s1 - s2 - s3 = P

=

(odds-1) x s1 -s2 - s3 = P ?
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Re: Dutch Betting Question

Postby osknows » Thu Oct 26, 2017 10:54 pm

Yes, you've got it, (odds-1) x s1 -s2 - s3 = P is correct.

Odds of runner1 = o1
Stake of runner1 = s1
Stake of runner2 = s2
Stake of runner3 = s3
Target Profit = P
Target Liability = L

(o1-1)s1 - s2 - s3 = P for runner 1 assuming 3 runners are dutched.

is the same as

o1s1 - s1 -s2 -s3 = P

L = s1 + s2 + s3, if you just invert the terms then -L = -s1 - s2 - s3 then (-s1 - s2 - s3) is in both formula allowing substitution

so o1s1 - s1 -s2 -s3 = P becomes

o1s1 - L = P

but we want to solve for target liability L so need to rearrange to get L

o1s1 - P = L


These formula can be solved as simultaneous equations in Excel using matrices for any number of runners. The odds of each runner is known, the target liability is known and the stakes will be calculated to give the required liability. Does that help?
Last edited by osknows on Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Dutch Betting Question

Postby osknows » Thu Oct 26, 2017 11:15 pm

Here is working sample that shows how to solve for up to 6 runners

https://www.dropbox.com/s/3bcsqq87umza2 ... .xlsx?dl=0
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Re: Dutch Betting Question

Postby SWV » Fri Oct 27, 2017 6:23 pm

but how do i know what the stakes are?
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Re: Dutch Betting Question

Postby Captain Sensible » Fri Oct 27, 2017 7:37 pm

With anything betting I always look at things in terms of the book percentages each horse is taking, much the same as when you're betting overrrounds/underrounds

So let's say we're dutching 3 runners decimal odds 4, 5 and 5. To get equal payouts we'd simply get the book percent each runner is taking by dividing by 100

so 4 is 100/4 = 25% and the 5's are 100/5 =20%

So we're betting into a 65% book i.e. 25% + 20% + 20%

So all we need to do to maintain an equal book is to bet to those ratios.

To bet to a £100 stake we'd simply bet 100 * 25/65 on the 4's and 100 * 20/65 on each of the 5's
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