Horse Racing Places Odds Calculator

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Eliminating the Longshot Bias

Postby mrprobit » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:37 pm

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Last edited by mrprobit on Wed Aug 19, 2009 12:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Manual Entry of Prices

Postby mrprobit » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:42 pm

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Postby Captain Sensible » Sun Jul 05, 2009 11:43 pm

mrprobit wrote:regarding profitable strategies, that is for the user to determine themselves. It's not upto me to give the profitable strategies as I might as well come round your house and use your pc and place the bets for you!


Whoa calm down :shock:
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Postby mrprobit » Mon Jul 06, 2009 12:11 am

Captain Sensible wrote:
mrprobit wrote:regarding profitable strategies, that is for the user to determine themselves. It's not upto me to give the profitable strategies as I might as well come round your house and use your pc and place the bets for you!


Whoa calm down :shock:


sorry, didnt mean to sound sarcastic, but was trying to say that the application is meant to take the user so far and this rest is upto them, In that they can use it and analyse the results for themselves to determine the profitable strategies that work for them.
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update

Postby mrprobit » Mon Jul 06, 2009 12:51 am

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Re: update

Postby sjaak1943 » Mon Jul 06, 2009 6:28 pm

mrprobit wrote:I've updated the faults I found earlier and the new version can be found at

http://www.bettingmodels.com/downloads/ ... st_1_2.exe

If anyone spots anyone or has any suggestions, just let me know.


Very interesting program.
I have to do a lot for fully understanding.
Because my technical English is not so good as yours.

Keep on going!

Sjaak
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Manual entry of parameters

Postby mrprobit » Tue Jul 07, 2009 7:28 pm

In order to prevent cross posting I am going to give updates and further instructions for the application over at the forum on my website.

The URL is

http://www.bettingmodels.yuku.com/forums/66

I've just updated the forum with instructions on how to define your own model instead of using the pre-set ones with the application
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Postby dgs2001 » Tue Jul 07, 2009 8:41 pm

mrprobit wrote:Am I Talking to myself here ?


An interesting post seeing as you did'nt bother to comment on my question, or make any attempt to engage with me what so ever.

I do hope you answer yourself better than you answer interested parties.


I'm afraid you sound abit muffled to me, try removing your head from up your own bottom.

Duncan :D
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Postby KevinTHFC » Tue Jul 07, 2009 11:10 pm

dgs2001 wrote:
mrprobit wrote:Am I Talking to myself here ?



I'm afraid you sound abit muffled to me, try removing your head from up your own bottom.

Duncan :D


Classic, you crack me up Duncan :D
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Postby mrprobit » Wed Jul 08, 2009 2:06 am

dgs2001 wrote:
mrprobit wrote:Am I Talking to myself here ?


An interesting post seeing as you did'nt bother to comment on my question, or make any attempt to engage with me what so ever.

I do hope you answer yourself better than you answer interested parties.


I'm afraid you sound abit muffled to me, try removing your head from up your own bottom.

Duncan :D


sorry, missed your post with me filling the thread with my posts, if i've lost your interest so be it.

anyway to answer your post, it an online web authoring tool provided by my host and the program was written in excel and then compiled into an application that uses the excel enviroment. The advantage of this is that it allows the end user some functionality and manipulation within excel.
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Postby mrprobit » Wed Oct 21, 2009 11:52 pm

mrprobit wrote:
knot wrote:why not just use it for yourself if its a money maker ? :roll:


a logical question, but I have not claimed that it makes or money or is any kind of system.

I prefer to call it a tool, which can be used by people in different ways as an aid to their betting strategies.

However unlike "systems" that are regularly advertised, the program works on proven research that these models give a better indication of the place odds than any other methods (see efficiency of racetrack betting markets by ziemba and hausch for further reading).

The formulas are publicly available, I'm just making them more accessable to the wider audience. unlike the calcodds or others that work on proven flawed place odds formula (i.e. harville) I'm also selling this on a one off permanent basis rather than a "service".

One could ask the same about this site, if the gruss is api is such a moneymaker why does gary not keep it to himself ? the answer should be fairly obvious that the api does not guarantee making money, it's how it's used that determines that. I'd prefer to see my program in the same vein.

Like everyone else here, I'm sure that you have all found that the internet has totally revolutinsed betting and made professional gambling a realistic full time career. However myself, I have found that as markets have become more efficient thay are harder to extract any money out of and that margins are much tighter, a margin that can be easily wiped out by the shenigans at betfair.

for me the rewards of gambling on betfair (or anywhere else) are too tight for me now, however the program or others I have in the pipeline might be another weapon in the armoury of some the users here (or elsewhere) that will increase your margin or even keep you in the game.

so therefore my aim is to make money by selling programs such as this, but I'll be honest there is a longer term vision to this. I know selling this is not going to make me a rich man, but I am hoping to set up a business providing modelling services and selling software like this to the betting industry and people like yourselves here. This is where I beleive the long term profits are for me.

The big bookmakers are beginning to take mathematical & statistical modelling very seriously and this is very much an infant industry which I want to get into.

For example 3 major bookmakers are using sportingindex to provide modelling services as they lack the expertise and personnel to do this on their own.

Last september skybet set up a modelling department by recruiting a load of maths graduates, however none of them had any experience or knowledge of the betting industry.

even betfair have been looking at modelling for their traders in malta to actively trade their own markets, or to use betfair speak "manage liabilities"

This area is something I enjoy from an intellectual perspective as well as just making money. I have been offered positons by all of the companies above and would have taken any of them had they came up with a reasonable wage offer. so I am going to give it go going on my own. I might make it, I might not, If I don't then at least I would have made at least some money doing something I enjoy.

For those who have seen my website, you will see that I am not just going to try and make a few quid through my programs, but am Hoping my website becomes the number 1 resource for mathematical gamblers like yourselves on here.


Since I have had quite a few messages both here and at my website, I think I better give an update. I am no longer able to sell the models I had devised and provide new ones as I have come to an arrangement with a corporate client to provide these services to them.

As I stated above this was my eventual aim, I just didnt expect it to happen so soon! Things have been really hectic because of this recently as I have had to move and had lots of other things to sort out and didn't want to make any announcements to soon. So I will apologise to those who have messaged me and i never got back to.

Be lucky everyone !

Mr probit
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Postby jokerjoe » Thu Oct 22, 2009 9:10 am

If you are mathematically inclined it's a pretty simple algorithm, all details are available in the following paper:

# The Application of Ranking Probability Models to Racetrack Betting
# Victor S. Y. Lo, John Bacon-Shone and Kelly Busche
# Management Science, Vol. 41, No. 6 (Jun., 1995), pp. 1048-1059

http://www.jstor.org/pss/2632831
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Postby jasonofferman1 » Thu Nov 24, 2011 1:17 pm

Hi everyone..

I have come to ask that.., if anyone help me to write a trigger strategy...
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Sports betting software from Gruss Software


The strength of Gruss Software is that it’s been designed by one of you, a frustrated sports punter, and then developed by listening to dozens of like-minded enthusiasts.

Gruss is owned and run by brothers Gary and Mark Russell. Gary discovered Betfair in 2004 and soon realised that using bespoke software to place bets was much more efficient than merely placing them through the website.

Gary built his own software and then enhanced its features after trialling it through other Betfair users and reacting to their improvement ideas, something that still happens today.

He started making a small monthly charge so he could work on it full-time and then recruited Mark to help develop the products and Gruss Software was born.

We think it’s the best of its kind and so do a lot of our customers. But you can never stand still in this game and we’ll continue to improve the software if any more great ideas emerge.

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