Level Win Formula

[gvigliani]

Hello friends,
I wanted to ask the expert how to solve another problem arising from the calculation of Level Win.

The problem is this:
OddBack1 = 3.5
OddBack2 = 7.2
OddBack3 = 2.9

Proposed LevelWin = € 5

Stake1 = 5 / (3,5-1) = 2
Stake2 = 5 / (7,2-1) = 0,81
Stake3 = 5 / (2,9-1) = 2,63

Win for OddBack1 = (2 * (3,5-1)) - 0,81 - 2,63 = 1,56
Win for OddBack2 = (0,81 * (7,2-1)) - 2 - 2,63 = 0,39
Win for OddBack3 = (2,63 * (2,9-1)) - 2 - 0,81 = 2,19

You know if there is a formula for a fixed profit n ?

Thanks

Punto13

[alrodopial]

Change the BackOdds into their chances
eg OddBack1 = 3.5 will become 1/3.5 = 0.2857

and the stake for this will be n/(1-BackOdds1Chance) = n/(1-0.2857)

For correct calculations when you add these chances you must get 1.
So if you add
1/3.5 = 0.2857
1/7.2 = 0.1388
1/2.9=0.3448

you must get 1 but at this case you get 0.7693 so before calculating the stake change these so you get 1.
0.2857 -> 0.37
0.1388 -> 0.18
1.3448 -> 0.45

so the stake is n/(1-0.37)

[gvigliani]

you must get 1 but at this case you get 0.7693 so before calculating the stake change these so you get 1.
0.2857 -> 0.37
0.1388 -> 0.18
1.3448 -> 0.45

so the stake is n/(1-0.37)

Dear friend thank you for your courtesy, but I did not understand this last step. Could you explain in more detail?

Thanks

Punto13

[alrodopial]

You must change the 0.7693 into 1 , so you must increase it by 1-0.7693=0.2307 , so you must increase it by 0.2307/0.7693 = 0.2998 so you increase it by 29.98%.

In order to do this you can increase by this amount every part of it.
It's parts are the BackOdds1,BackOdds2,BackOdds3 (their chances).
So you must increase the :
0.2857 by 29.98% it becomes -> 0.37
0.1388 by 29.98% it becomes -> 0.18
1.3448 by 29.98% it becomes -> 0.45

Hope it's clearer now.

[gvigliani]

You must change the 0.7693 into 1 , so you must increase it by 1-0.7693=0.2307 , so you must increase it by 0.2307/0.7693 = 0.2998 so you increase it by 29.98%.

In order to do this you can increase by this amount every part of it.
It's parts are the BackOdds1,BackOdds2,BackOdds3 (their chances).
So you must increase the :
NetProfit = € 5
0.2857 by 29.98% it becomes -> 0.37
0.1388 by 29.98% it becomes -> 0.18
1.3448 by 29.98% it becomes -> 0.45

Hope it's clearer now.

Well, after a good day of study, I tried and tried, but indeed, the accounts did not add up.
Is there any friend who can help me to see what's wrong?

NET PROFIT requested= € 5
Odd1= 9------------->1/9 = 0,1111
Odd2=10,50--------->1/10,50 = 0,0952
Odd3= 3,45---------->1/3,45 = 0,2898
Odd4 = 5,10--------->1/5,10 = 0,1960
Odd5 = 4,40--------->1/4,40 = 0,2272
=========================
Odd Sum = 0,9243

Calculate the difference to 1 :
1 - 0,9243 = 0,0757
0,0757/0,9243 = 0,0819

I estimate the new Odds:
UPD Odd Stake Profit
Odd1= 0,1111 + (0,1111 * 0,0819) = 0,1201 * 5 = 0,60 * (9-1) =4,80
Odd2= 0,0952 + (0,0952 * 0,0819) = 0,1030 * 5 = 0,52 * (10.50-1)=4,94
Odd3= 0,2898 + (0,2898 * 0,0819) = 0,3135 * 5 = 1,57 * (3,45-1) =3,84
Odd4 =0,1960 + (0,1960 * 0,0819) = 0,2121 * 5 = 1,06 * (5,10-1) =4,34
Odd5 =0,2272 + (0,2272 * 0,0819) = 0,2458 * 5 = 1,23 * (4,40-1) =4,18

The profit for each ODD is already below the required net profit.
Then if we take the total profit from all of our spending on each individual bet we will have a profit which is about 10% of the amount requested.
Where am I wrong?
Thanks

Punto13

[alrodopial]

Sorry, you have pm

[osknows]

Hello friends,
The problem is this:
OddBack1 = 3.5
OddBack2 = 7.2
OddBack3 = 2.9

Proposed LevelWin = € 5

these are 3 simultaneous equations where
S1 & O1 are Stake 1 and Odds 1
S2 & O2 are Stake 2 and odds 2
S3 & O3 are stake 3 and odds 3

1) S1(O1-1) - S2 - S3 = Lw
2) S2(O2-1) - S1 - S3 = Lw
3) S3(O3-1) - S1 - S2 = Lw

Eliminate S2 from 1) and 3) by subtracting equation 3) from 1) to produce equation 4)

4) S1(O1-1) -S2 -S3 - S3(O3-1) + S1 + S2 = Lw - Lw
4) S1[(O1-1)+1] - S3[(O3-1)+1] = 0
4) S1O1 - S3O3 = 0 or
4) S1 = S3O3 / O1

Now eliminate S2 from 1) and 2) by multiplying 1) by (O2-1) then add 2)

5) S1(O1-1)(O2-1) - S2(O2-1) - S3(O2-1) + S2(O2-1) - S1 - S3 = Lw(O2-1)+Lw
5) S1(O1-1)(O2-1) - S3(O2-1) - S1 - S3 = LwO2

Substitute equation 4) into 5)

5) S3O3/O1 (O1-1) (O2-1) - S3(O2-1) - S3O3 / O1 - S3 - LwO2
5) S3 = LwO2 / [O3/O1(O1-1)(O2-1)-(O2-1)-O3/O1-1]

Solving 5)
S3 = 7.48

Solving 4)
S1 = (7.48 x 2.9)/ 3.5 = 6.2

Rearrange any original equation 1), 2) or 3) to get S2 - say rearrange
2) S2(O2-1) - S1 - S3 = Lw
S2 = [Lw + S1 + S3] / (O2-1)
S2 = (5 + 6.2 + 7.48) / (6.2)
S2 = 3.01

So Stakes of £6.20, £3.01 & £7.48 will give you a level profit of £5 for given odds