Bookmaking Maths

[xraymitch]

Thanks joe lively and manager1 for this very interesting thread and sharing of your ideas. Had forgotten I had contributed/read this in early September - shame there has been no further comments since the end of September though from others who may have tried it.

On a different tack altogether it was good to see laffo16 back. I thought your gruss-bot had real potential and was saddened to see over the last 6 months that it has not worked out for you. Is there any hope laffo16 of it being ressurected or are the upfront costs just too much to bear at the moment ?

For what it's worth you always had me as a supporter.

Cheers,

Ray

[joe lively]

There was a lot more discussion and in more detail on the same idea over on the bf forum lead by an interesting guy called 'beattheoveround'. He spent a great deal of time running with it and always claimed to be in profit. He eventually abondoned it though, i think he moved onto another method which involved laying steamers before the off.

[alrodopial]

There was a lot more discussion and in more detail on the same idea over on the bf forum lead by an interesting guy called 'beattheoveround'. He spent a great deal of time running with it and always claimed to be in profit. He eventually abondoned it though, i think he moved onto another method which involved laying steamers before the off.

Can you provide a link?
I can't find anything

[doris_day]

but it doesn't matter because long term laying below bookies sp we should show a profit.

Well, that's only true if you lay a normal distribution. However thats unlikely to be the case. I'd gues you'll lay a much greater proportion of winners than you'll need to generate a profit.....I may be wrong of course.....

[joe lively]

Well, that's only true if you lay a normal distribution. However thats unlikely to be the case. I'd gues you'll lay a much greater proportion of winners than you'll need to generate a profit.....I may be wrong of course.....

There certainly were days where I hit an almost unbelievable amount of winners but it seemed if you were prepared to grind it out then you could edge a profit. Thats only based on my short test period which as i said earlier was too short to draw a proper conclusion.

When we were running this it was during the flat season and there was no consideration of race type. I wondered back then if it maybe more effective over the jumps as those early price movements that we were trying to take advantage of would be more relevant to the outcome in a sprint than say a 3m chase.

[doris_day]

What you need for this to work is what you have at the moment. Poor liquidity and high volatility in-running. I would imagine you'd get a good run for your money right now.....and I suspect if it doesn't work now, it'll never work.....go for it.....

[manager1]

There was a lot more discussion and in more detail on the same idea over on the bf forum lead by an interesting guy called 'beattheoveround'. He spent a great deal of time running with it and always claimed to be in profit. He eventually abondoned it though, i think he moved onto another method which involved laying steamers before the off.

Just saw this post....

I am beattheoverround on the Betfair forum

I did abandon the in running method, not because it was losing, but because of time restrictions and a better method I came up with.
Now I have the new method fully automated so I can go to bed and it ticks away nicely.
I am laying horses whose Betfair SP is shorter than the bookies prices at 30 seconds before the due off time.
Naturally, I'm getting those matched which firm on Betfair in the minutes before the actual off.
Been working well for a few years now.

[alrodopial]

Thanks for sharing the method mate,
just one thing :
How do you select what bookie price to use ? they have different odds each other (and certainly many have smaller than others - which price will you use, the bigger (close to BF price) or the smaller one?)
Thanks

[manager1]

For each country I use the live odds from the track.

UK/IRE - Sporting Life live shows
AUS - Betchoice live prices

I've had far more success with live track odds than the corporates who sometimes play balancing games.

[mcscom]

Hello Manager 1

Can i ask if you are still using your better method of laying under starting prices as i have been working on a similar idea and would like to know if it works.

[manager1]

Yes, still using the method.
Perhaps it's the bookies laying off on Betfair, or the mad scramble to get on and not miss out which drives the price down further than it should be.
But it's been working solidly for a while now.
Bear in mind that there are highs and lows though.

[mcscom]

Thanks for getting back to me. I have been trying to lay at 5% under betfair SP at the off but cancel after 20 seconds but am struggling with the spreadsheets. Not to good with XL so any hints you can send my way would really help. You can email me mark@mcscom.co.uk if its easier.