by Castillo » Mon Jan 08, 2007 12:17 pm
One criteria for triggered bets in excel is to ensure that you are getting reasonable odds and the
Overound is not ridiculously high as it can be a few hours before an event starts or just as a market
turns IN PLAY. A way around this is to calculate the Overound in excel and as part of your trigger formula
add AE36<102% meaning do not place a bet if the Overound is above 102% for example.
The formula to calculate the Overound is =IF(AND(A5<>"",F5>0),1/F5,"") format this cell to a percentage
and 2 decimal places, this is now the probability of the selection in row 5 winning the event according
to the latest odds available. Use this formula against every row and sum all the values :-
Formula / Odds / Probability
=IF(AND(A5<>"",F5>0),1/F5,"") 10.5 9.52%
=IF(AND(A6<>"",F6>0),1/F6,"") 5.1 19.61%
=IF(AND(A7<>"",F7>0),1/F7,"") 3.75 26.67%
=IF(AND(A8<>"",F8>0),1/F8,"") 3.65 27.40%
=IF(AND(A9<>"",F9>0),1/F9,"") 10.5 9.52%
=IF(AND(A10<>"",F10>0),1/F10,"") 11 9.09%
The sum of all values =SUM(AE5:AE35) 101.81%
We now know the Overound for this market is 101.81%, so If the sum was in cell AE36, if AE36<102% was added to the trigger formula a bet will not be placed until the Overound is less than 102%.
I use this when I set up a market a long time before the event starts when the current Overound is say 256% which means extremely low odds on offer, or if you want to bet IN PLAY no bets are placed until the market odds settle down so you don’t catch all the 1.01, 1.02 etc early on.
I hope this may help some people as it has certainly helped me developing excel trading spreadsheets.
Cheers
Castillo