Is this just 'variance'?!

Discuss anything related to using the program (eg. triggered betting tactics)

Moderator: 2020vision

Is this just 'variance'?!

Postby sam84 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:28 pm

Hi guys

So I have a trigger enabled spreadsheet which has been working in every UK race since the end of Dec 2020 which has been gradually growing in profit day by day, nice and steady, some days just about break even, others a bit more up others a little bit down.

Anyway since around Feb 15th, it is suddenly begun an almighty downswing, incessant, every day.

So - obviously this could be just racing having a laugh with me and good old fashioned variance - but I was wondering - has anything changed or been updated in the Betfair exchange around this time? Has anybody else noticed anything similar? I notice they've brought in a new 'MatchMe' thing - is that affecting things somehow and making the exchange much more volatile?

Fully expecting it to be just me, but thought I would throw the question out there.

Thanks!
Sam
sam84
 
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:21 pm

Re: Is this just 'variance'?!

Postby NorthView » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:14 pm

Impossible to say without more information.

How many bets have you placed and at what average price?

Also take a look at the results during your downswing. Have there been more adverse results than previously? If, say, you're backing or trading shorties have more than the usual number of them been turned over?
NorthView
 
Posts: 132
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:33 pm
Location: London

Re: Is this just 'variance'?!

Postby sam84 » Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:46 am

Thanks for the reply.

Just doing a load of analysis (the run is still continuing..)

Looking at in-running odds to see if those who might have been expected to win, did, or didn't..

So from Dec 26 - Feb 14, when things were going well:

548 horses hit less than 3.0 in running
Average in-running odds - 1.52 (Expectation then that 65% should win?)

Actual number of winners - 244 (44.53%)

From Feb 15, when things turned:

179 horses hit less than 3.0 in running
Average in-running odds - 1.62 (Expectation then that 61% should win?)

Actual number of winners - 54 (30.17%)

Of these 179, 121 actually hit under 2.0 in running
(Average in-running odds 1.26) (Expectation that 79% should win?)

Actual number of winners - 54 (44.63%)

To complete this picture - from Dec 26 - Feb 14:

396 hit under 2.0 in running, at an average in-running odds of 1.18 (Expectation that 84% should win?)

Of these 396, 244 won (61.62%)

**

My conclusion, simplistic perhaps, is that I've just hit a brick wall in terms of results and that I expect things to turn around or at least improve to profitability, given the continued beating of BSP.

The strike rate stats are:

Pre Feb 15:

1076 bets
7.49 average taken price
6.75 average BSP
244 winners (22.68%)
Profit: +228.78pts
548 hit under 3.0 in running (50.93%)
396 hit under 2.0 in running (36.8%)
(1467 laid off for loss of 155.85pts)
*Overall Profit: +72.93pts*

Post Feb 15:

357 bets
7.41 average taken price
6.79 average BSP
54 winners (15.13%)
Profit: -108.14pts
179 hit under 3.0 in running (50.14%)
121 hit under 2.0 in running (33.89%)
(494 laid off for further loss of 53.6pts)
*Overall Profit: -161.74pts*

For my system to work, I obviously need to win more from my backs (horses not laid off) than I lose from the lays.

Through this latest period, I've had 18 horses hit 1.22 or shorter and not win, including at prices 25, 18, 10 and 9.

If you looked at the graph (don't know how to insert pictures, you'd see a steady upwards rise before a very sudden downturn.

I suppose the question is, was the period prior to Feb 15 actually the flukey one, it's possible I suppose? If not I can expect a correction in the coming weeks back to the black, I have my doubts though.

Probably I need to run things for six months to see how things pan out, minimum.
sam84
 
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:21 pm

Re: Is this just 'variance'?!

Postby sam84 » Sun Feb 28, 2021 2:05 am

As an additional footnote,

The average winning price within the first period was 5.26.

The average winning price since Feb 15 is 4.62

*

So as well as needing a few more to finish off the race and win, they need to be the right ones odds wise, too.

Nobody ever said this'd be easy lol.
sam84
 
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:21 pm

Re: Is this just 'variance'?!

Postby NorthView » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:39 pm

sam84 wrote:Thanks for the reply.

Just doing a load of analysis (the run is still continuing..)

Looking at in-running odds to see if those who might have been expected to win, did, or didn't..

So from Dec 26 - Feb 14, when things were going well:

548 horses hit less than 3.0 in running
Average in-running odds - 1.52 (Expectation then that 65% should win?)

Actual number of winners - 244 (44.53%)

From Feb 15, when things turned:

179 horses hit less than 3.0 in running
Average in-running odds - 1.62 (Expectation then that 61% should win?)

Actual number of winners - 54 (30.17%)

Of these 179, 121 actually hit under 2.0 in running
(Average in-running odds 1.26) (Expectation that 79% should win?)

Actual number of winners - 54 (44.63%)

To complete this picture - from Dec 26 - Feb 14:

396 hit under 2.0 in running, at an average in-running odds of 1.18 (Expectation that 84% should win?)

Of these 396, 244 won (61.62%)

**

My conclusion, simplistic perhaps, is that I've just hit a brick wall in terms of results and that I expect things to turn around or at least improve to profitability, given the continued beating of BSP.

The strike rate stats are:

Pre Feb 15:

1076 bets
7.49 average taken price
6.75 average BSP
244 winners (22.68%)
Profit: +228.78pts
548 hit under 3.0 in running (50.93%)
396 hit under 2.0 in running (36.8%)
(1467 laid off for loss of 155.85pts)
*Overall Profit: +72.93pts*

Post Feb 15:

357 bets
7.41 average taken price
6.79 average BSP
54 winners (15.13%)
Profit: -108.14pts
179 hit under 3.0 in running (50.14%)
121 hit under 2.0 in running (33.89%)
(494 laid off for further loss of 53.6pts)
*Overall Profit: -161.74pts*

For my system to work, I obviously need to win more from my backs (horses not laid off) than I lose from the lays.

Through this latest period, I've had 18 horses hit 1.22 or shorter and not win, including at prices 25, 18, 10 and 9.

If you looked at the graph (don't know how to insert pictures, you'd see a steady upwards rise before a very sudden downturn.

I suppose the question is, was the period prior to Feb 15 actually the flukey one, it's possible I suppose? If not I can expect a correction in the coming weeks back to the black, I have my doubts though.

Probably I need to run things for six months to see how things pan out, minimum.

Bolded is highly relevant - per Lay Back And Think Of Winning the gold standard for win rates is 100 winners, and you're only half way there for the post Feb 15th sample. Chances are it's just variance and things will pick up.
NorthView
 
Posts: 132
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:33 pm
Location: London

Re: Is this just 'variance'?!

Postby NorthView » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:42 pm

Can't edit a ost here, but I meant Mordin's Winning Without Thinking.

It's especially relevant at the prices you're backing at. At, say evens, 54 winners would tell you a lot about how you're doing, but at 7.5 it's not enough.
NorthView
 
Posts: 132
Joined: Wed Oct 08, 2008 12:33 pm
Location: London

Re: Is this just 'variance'?!

Postby watso12 » Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:28 pm

i have had a big downswing since 12th feb , must be variance tho i think
watso12
 
Posts: 10
Joined: Mon Apr 05, 2021 7:36 pm

Re: Is this just 'variance'?!

Postby sam84 » Mon May 03, 2021 7:23 am

Thanks for the replies. Pleased to say things have kicked back into gear.

@Watso yes I had a big, out of the blue, downward swing around that date for a week or two, like you say it must have been variance but a small part of me still feels that I missed something more specific to do with the exchange conditions and it could happen again (and so hopefully I could do something about it).

Cheers
sam84
 
Posts: 5
Joined: Tue Jun 02, 2020 9:21 pm


Return to Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests

Sports betting software from Gruss Software


The strength of Gruss Software is that it’s been designed by one of you, a frustrated sports punter, and then developed by listening to dozens of like-minded enthusiasts.

Gruss is owned and run by brothers Gary and Mark Russell. Gary discovered Betfair in 2004 and soon realised that using bespoke software to place bets was much more efficient than merely placing them through the website.

Gary built his own software and then enhanced its features after trialling it through other Betfair users and reacting to their improvement ideas, something that still happens today.

He started making a small monthly charge so he could work on it full-time and then recruited Mark to help develop the products and Gruss Software was born.

We think it’s the best of its kind and so do a lot of our customers. But you can never stand still in this game and we’ll continue to improve the software if any more great ideas emerge.

cron