Premium Charge will be changed in October

[2020vision]

Hi Doris

Thanks for your reply but may I go as far to ask for a few precise examples
if that's not giving away to much of your knowledge please?

If you too busy or want to keep the ideas to yourself I shall understand.
Perhaps you might consider PM'ing them?

Thanks in any event, all the best - Michael

[Captain Sensible]

2020 , I assume doris is talking about related football markets like next goal/correct score where the same situation could be laid/backed acroos markets i.e. laying the 0-0 in correct score would be the same as backing no goal in the next goal market if the current score is 0-0 and

laying the 0-1 in correct score would be the same as backing no goal in the next goal market if the current score is 0-1 etc

Lots of goal markets in football can be offset against other goal markets i'e overs unders all relate to each other in the past there were lots of arbs but rarely worth it due to commission now they can be useful if the net result including comms is 0 just to rack up coms for betfair.

[pugs]

PC has affected me for roughly 50 to 70% of weeks. When I have a particularly good week the PC figure physically sickens me. When I have an average week, I am able to look away and just be thankful I am in profit. But then I look at my overall PC paid and i’m physically sickened again.

I know there will be people reading this and thinking “poor old pugs, at least you’re making money” but that is not the point. The point is I am taking huge risks for BF to take a hefty risk free sum that’s above and beyond their 5% commission.

Mostly I used to trade, but keep bets ended most of my strategies, so I have had to resort back to in-running, and without live pic’s that’s a dangerous game.
About 4 months ago I took a hefty hit, it took 2 months to recover the loss. During the 2 months I did not pay PC (I was over the 20% threshold ) but the same week I had recovered the loss, I was back to paying PC.
Then 2 weeks and 1 week ago, stupidity/lack of discipline saw me take two more hefty losses (I could/should have traded out for relatively small losses) So I am no longer paying PC. The point is, under BF’s new proposed system, I am fairly certain I will start paying PC again immediately.
They, in effect are going to ensure everyone has paid at least 22.5% from when you opened your account, and with no more allowance. Thats how I read it anyway.

Churning money. I have often thought about doing this in the football markets but I just can’t get my head around something.

Does winning 1k and losing 1k (in different markets) affect your overall “efficiency” by more than the commission you pay? OR just by the amount you pay?

Thanks in advance if anyone can answer/demonstrate and has the time.

[doris_day]

Sorry to hear about your charges. Because what I do is so efficient (and that goes for most PC payers) in Betfair's eyes, you have to reduce your efficiency by what I call 'churning' your money. Its effectively a way to increase your turnover whilst not increasing your overall profit very much. Soccer is a good way to do it because many of their markets create opportunities and there is usually pretty good liquidity, particularly now we're entering the European soccer season. In fact any method to increase your turnover while not increasing your profits much would do the trick and I'm sure there are plenty of opportunities out there that I'm not aware of.

Betfair is the only supposedly P2P exchange where you get penalised for being better than your peers. Just another indication of how Betfair isn't really a P2P exchange at all. In my opinion it needs to be properly regulated by a government body so the skimming that Betfair does can be eradicated. No other market is so sloppily managed by a government.

[milfor]

Does winning 1k and losing 1k (in different markets) affect your overall “efficiency” by more than the commission you pay? OR just by the amount you pay?

'More' is a wrong answer.
'Just' is a wrong answer as well.
'Less' is the right answer.

If your commission is 5% and you win and lose 1K then you pay 50 as commission but reduce PC only by 40. It is even possible to win more on a market than to lose on another and still to be worse off in total. I wonder how many people are 'churning' with much effort only to enhance their charges in total.

I have looked at those football markets but in the best cases I get the same odds or at most 1 tick better. With the calculation above that would still be a deficit. There are 2 possibilities:

*) The churners get only 1 tick profit in one market in comparison with the other and don't know that this is a bad idea.
*) They found a pair of markets where they get 3-4 ticks profit. I didn't find such markets yet.

Maybe someone who actually churns could answer which of the 2 possibilities is true.

[doris_day]

milfor, there are plenty of markets with which you can create risk free intra-Betfair arbs even taking into account your commission charges. Therefore you increase your turnover yet don't increase your profits thus reducing your PC charge.

[milfor]

Plenty? In Soccer? One selection against one other? Or one selection against several others? I admit I didn't analyze latter because the former was so hopeless.

[doris_day]

With the greatest respect, I don't think you've looked at the possibilities closely enough but by going into greater detail I'll only be shooting myself in the foot as I need all the liqudity I can get.....the opportunities are out there and I've had to do it since the PC started.....

[milfor]

You are right of course *sigh* This PC makes me sick. I feel like having to win every Pound twice.

[doris_day]

Yes, it is sickening, particularly as Betfair are only doing it because their normal P2P business accounts were showing them that they were not up to projections and they had to find other ways of boosting their bottom line.
Poker particularly and other addons have been a huge drain on their resources. I believe they spent over £8m sponsoring the WSOPE which has been money down the drain because their poker site is a joke in the industry and has done especially badly since they left the Cryptologic stable.

[2020vision]

This is all pretty interesting but can someone please try to answer this:

Assuming that EVERY week my PC is £100 how much would I have to wager
(win/lose) on other markets to offset the whole amount? Also assume that
when winning enough to pay the PC I have very few losing markets.

Or if you like how much PC would "churning" say £500 actually save me,
assuming that I make no profit and hopefully just about break even?

Any examples or some kind of formula may help me to understand?

Thanks in advance, all the best - Michael

P.S. How come the "churning" events don't just cancel each other out so that
you will still be liable for the full PC on overall profit?

[Captain Sensible]

Like everything with the pc there aren't any easy calculations cos it's based mainly on your rolling 60 week figure and there's no real way of avoiding it.

But if you're paying £100 per week to avoid paying them those charges as PC you'd need to generate them that £100 comms elsewhere. That obviously brings it's own risks looking for what are effectively arbs on the site by cross markets that others are most likely aiming for also. Assumin for simplicity you're on 5% that means finding 5% arbs (not easy especially if someone else is on a lower rate and effectively they can operate on 2% arbs plus they'll maybe have been exploiting those markets along time).

So to churn £100 at 5% means a turnover of at least £2000 plus a bit extra as in betfairs eyes you've won another £100 and would then pay 20% on that also You'd be much better off using your time looking for winning strategies or upping your stakes rather than looking for risky ways to avoid it.

[2020vision]

Cheers Capt

I do wonder what is the point in "churning" because at the end of the day
you will have generated just as much commission as you are trying to avoid
paying anyway? And you will have wasted time and taken extra risks too!

Might as well pay the robbing b******s their PC and thank my lucky stars
and talent that at least I am an overall winner.

Thanks again - Michael

[Captain Sensible]

I'd hazard a guess one of the reasons the account lifetime has been brought in, rather than rolling 60 weeks, has been to appease arbers who'll now be somewhat protected from freak runs and therefore bring that bookie cash back into the site. Arbing the bookies v betfair would be a lot better and profitable way of negating pc charges rather than arbing between betfair markets.

[mak]

Hi to all
can someone clarify the following?

1. If someone is winning the last week 1000 he does not have to pay PC is that right?

2. If he wins 2000 he have to pay for PC (1000 x 20%)-commission that already been paid? = 150

3. if next week there is no winnings or loses what happens?

4. When BA for betdaq will be ready?