Back $4 on 1000 odds taken

[Joe68]

This is an interesting discussion.

Without giving away your livelihood, Captain, could I please ask what you consider a simple system?

For example, is it simpler to bet live? Is it simpler to close out positions to green up a profit rather than let open positions expose your account to risk? Is it simpler to attempt to estimate true odds and take price distortions? Is it simpler to restrict wagers to one mode of lay or back? Is it simpler to try to operate a book?

Hope you can give some generic thoughts at least.

[Captain Sensible]

The trouble with making generalisations on Betfair is you always find someone who'll be an exception to the rule. You've just got to play to your own strengths because there are so many ways to skin a cat on Betfair.

For me I just find it easier to keep things simple as I started on Betfair with a bookmaking view rather than form based approach. I think if you're botting on Betfair, especially live , it's hard enough to get one 'value' bet let alone another 'value' bet to close out. If you can identify which is the 'value' then better to let those runs rather than give away value by cashing in. But lot's of people won't be able to identify which one is value so if they're winning by greening out they may as well continue. Plus you always have to take into account PC, peoples attitude to risk and long losing runs. It's just never that simple for a one strategy fits all.

[Dag]

And again... and again. Weird.

The day before yesterday I've place bet of $0.10 on horse who was dismissed while program betted $4 on 1000 and I've lost that amount.

Today, horse had back odds about 12 and the same: bye $4.

I think that one simple line of code could solve those situation. If betted horse Back Odds are equal to 1000 - then CANCEL bet. That's all. Or there are only few people who are playing horses racing bellow stakes limits? In that case... never mind.

[Captain Sensible]

I think that one simple line of code could solve those situation. If betted horse Back Odds are equal to 1000 - then CANCEL bet. That's all. Or there are only few people who are playing horses racing bellow stakes limits? In that case... never mind.

Not sure how you think this can be included within the program, if your trigger is firing when the odds are actually 1000 then just include a condition in your trigger to avoid it. If you're hoping for BA to predict the future odds in the few seconds it takes for your bet to render it might be a step too far.

Remember BA is only submitting bets at the odds you've asked it to, it's placing the bets as soon as possible so no point in doing another odds check before placing just to check the next refresh odds as that'd just slow things even further.

Have you looked at why you're getting 1000 when betting at 12's ? May be the horses are just jumping badly so higher odds come into your conditions then they fall soon after or are the bets hanging and the initial bet just not being cancelled.

You should be able to check by looking at the bet submission time and bet taken time to see if they're 'hanging' for any reason. If they're being taken in that 3 second 'rendering' time then there's nothing you can really do to prevent it if that's not the case then it does need looking into

[Captain Sensible]

What was the horse today and how far into the race was it bet

[Dag]

What was the horse today and how far into the race was it bet

I’ve deleted my stat because I was very upset (line bellow is taken from betfair stat). I am using excel with 0.2 refresh rate and what I’ve seen, it was reasonable small odds (playing outsiders).

Code: Select all

IRE / Fairy 20th Nov / 14:15 2m Mdn Hrd   Thomas Moore   Back   31838370221   20-Nov-13   14:17   C   1,000   4.00   1,000   (4.00)

If smaller bet than min. stake, that everything is in few phases. One of them is command place (back) bet $4 on 1000. Here I think that final check could be done. Nobody of us placing bet on 1000 but program. The race above didn't even started yet (or just did). It wasn't In Play bet.

Within one week I had 4 times $4 lost (once my mistake) and once $8 lost. A little bit... u understand me.

[mak]

I really think you should add something in your code or your formulas to avoid this.If you are placing many (below the minimum stake) bets it is for certain that you will end up with this result. I don't believe that there is a way for Gary to prevent this

How many bets are you placing in every race (average) ?

[Captain Sensible]

Thomas Moore refused to race at the start so I'm not surprised the odds looked very attractive to a bot and it quickly went to 1000 once it was obvious it'd take no part.

[Captain Sensible]

I'd agree with mak you need to look at why each individual one is occurring to see if there's anyway you can avoid them. From all you've said so far it looks more like it's a problem with how and when you're placing bets rather than anything Gruss can 'fix' within the program.

[mak]

You could add in your calculations-formulas something like

1. find the smaller odds (small function in f column)
2. if smaller odds are below 2 for example don't place bet (if statement)

[Dag]

You could add in your calculations-formulas something like

1. find the smaller odds (small function in f column)
2. if smaller odds are below 2 for example don't place bet (if statement)

No no… we are going in wrong direction…

I am placing bets manually using excel (I’ve made some Excel replica of Guss’ program). I am seeing all odds and have back button aside. I am clicking the button and BA started his placing. Basically, I am playing dutching (each horse bet – one click; rarely I am using my button back all) and I do not betting horses above odds 15 or 20…

Where mak can be right: chances. As more you are doing this, larger are chances to catch the dismissed horse. Two in three days 4-6 bets per race times 25-30 races… . But nothing could be added to my code: there are no way to control that $4 back on 1000 bet. It could be done in BA program only. And not only horses with large odds could be dismissed! Any of them (the case on the day before yesterday).

Several times, I’ve placed bet on Correct score (football). BA took that bet and started his placing (3 x 5 seconds). When it is on $4 back on 1000 (5 seconds!), team A hit the goal. Market is immediately suspended and I never lost any bet on football on this ugly way (only on my wrong bets of course).

[Captain Sensible]

So you've recreated a back button on your excel sheet? Are you watching the races or just pressing your button when your sheet is saying the odds are good for dutching. I'm guessing you're not watching as you'd have seen the Thomas Moore refusal and not bet?

I don't know what criteria you're using for dutching but by not watching the race you're always more likely to be firing bets that are lengthening in odds for a good reason and either go on to fall or drop out of the running very quickly. The simple fact you're backing plenty of runners that hit 1000 within seconds of you placing them should be enough to indicate your system maybe isn't identifying 'live' runners.

You'll be safe on football because the markets are actively managed by Betfair suspending on a goal and no one is going to risk laying at 1000 when there's always the chance of a goal being disallowed.

[mak]

Well, I don't think I can help further, can't understand how you could avoid this, since I don't know when & why you are placing the bets

I guess that this is happening most in flat (short) races?

[Dag]

Actually, I am dutching before race and not playing the horses but the odds I’ve added total money value column and found some custom, adjusted, with money placed amount, chances / odds. That’s all I am playing. I can watch odds changing during the race and have available operations for dutched horses and for undutched. But betting during the race is also dangerous… And bet the horse whose get 1.10 back odds also means nothing: he could go back again. In the next race horse (before race odds outsider) had 1.06 back odds and lost

Instead of back on horses with small odds (high chances) maybe lay on them (if they are dutched already) could be right strategy? Not to wait race end. Just as idea

3 screenshots of my excel sheets:
http://laban.rs/files/sshot_1
http://laban.rs/files/sshot_2
http://laban.rs/files/sshot_3

[Captain Sensible]

Now I'm even more confused , so you're betting before the off but having bets matched at 1000?? Or are they bets being matched when you try and match up unmatched runners in running?

If it's pre off bets getting stuck at 1000 then there's probably a problem with gruss, otherwise it seems just about every step in your bet process is likely to slow things down.

Betting via a click button in gruss means it'll wait til the next refresh , even just clicking a button most peoples reflexes take half a second even when they're expecting it, the 3 steps to place a sub minimum bet all take time, I'd guess in running it'd be at least 4 seconds for the bet to hit the market from when you wanted to place it.

I'd also be careful if you're placing lots of those $0.09 bets, Betfair will be aware of your account and won't tolerate it for too long.