How many here bet in running?

[xraymitch]

Thanks Spike,

I hate to admit it but I always get myself confused between backing and laying and how to interpret the price and money movements.

ie if I click on the left side of the ladder as far as I am concerned I am offering a price to backers thus I am a layer. But then I get further confused because there times I am laying to greenup the bets and times I am laying because I think the selection will lose. Sorry I know I am not making myself very clear.

I have spent many hours creating triggers in excel with complex formulas (my works of art - which I am rather proud of) but yet I am missing some very basic understanding of the numbers I capture and I am so frustrated.

Say for example £60,000 is the total matched on a selection so far. Could this mean that £20,000 has been wagered on the selection winning with the layers having a liability of £40,000 ?

Or if I want to use the last price matched (lpm I assume is the same as lpt) as a guide to the price movement coming in or going out. I have hundreds of excel sheets where the price is all over the place. I have even seen it go from 2 to 300 and back again, many of the price movements just don't reflect what is happening in real time during a race.

Forgive me I really should give you specific examples but I don't have them to hand right now. I am going back a year or so ago when I thought by capturing the data in real time I could then research the data and come up with rules for triggers. Alas I failed

Your comments are always appreciated - so if I am just being thick then don't hesitate to say so.

Thanks again for your time.

Ray

[Spike]

As I understand it if £60,000 is matched at Betfair that means that bets worth £30,000 of backer's stakes have been matched. This is regardless of the odds at which they are placed- so the liabilities to layers could be much higher.

Prices in running are extremely volatile- which is what makes it so good. In a fast moving market it can sometimes be essentially impossible to say which way a price is going, and in any case by the time you've formed an opinion you may be over-taken by events.

Personally I don't get too involved in anylising markets "cold" as it were- I just come up with a theory, try it out with minimum stakes and see if it flies.

Once I have a strategy running that looks like it has some potential I then start to anylise it more closely, I record all the market details every time the triggers fire and go through them carefuly to identify where the opportunities are and reduce losing hits. I do this cautiously though as it's easy to draw false conclusions from small data sets- possibly the most common and least understood gambler's error.

Although the markets are in one sense extremely chaotic they also have highly reliable features, if you can recognise anything that happens time and again then the chances are you can cook something up to profit from it.

Obviously a lot of people who bet in running are pouring money down the drain- otherwise there wouldn't be winners, but there is no doubt that if you can recognise the opportunities there are fortunes to be made.

[Spike]

many of the price movements just don't reflect what is happening in real time during a race.

That's what you want!

[xraymitch]

Hi Spike,

Many thanks for your comments and taking the time to reply.

Could I dig out and email you one of my old data sheets which will give you specific examples of what I am trying to do for you to then comment upon ?

In the meantime I will reflect upon those areas that cause me confusion and then clarify exactly what troubles me.

I am in France until the end of August so can't access my data sheets until I return.

xraymitch wrote:
many of the price movements just don't reflect what is happening in real time during a race.

You reply "That's what you want!" but that seems to undermine the logic upon which I am basing my triggers ie price movements and money traded.

Anyhow as the sun is shining I think it's time for a break from the laptop.

Bon Chance et Merci Encore !!


Ray

[Spike]

I just mean that if price movements are out of line with actual events there must be value to be had one way or another. There's no point in betting on a horse if the prices accuratly reflect the probabilities.

PM me when you're back from holiday- I can't gaurantee I'll be able to help but I'll try. I am by no means big time though so please don't over-rate my knowledge- I am as apt to be wrong as anyone else.

[xraymitch]

Thanks for that I will PM you on my return.

Came across this comment from someone by chance yesterday, which illustrates the kind of things I would like to discern from my data.

A piece of information I’d like to see both ‘live’ and historical, is say the largest 5-10 individual bets matched. My thoughts about a market would be different, if say 100k was matched against a particular horse if that 100k was 70% made up of 7 bets of 10k and 2000 bets making up the rest, than 70k made up of 2000 bets and 3 bets making up 30k.

I have read many of your posts and always found them constructive. I guess I just like your straight talking and way of thinking so I would welcome your comments right or wrong.

Dam here I am in the South of France and today it's pouring with rain but still I have to go out in it !

Catch u later,

Ray

[xraymitch]

Thanks for that I will PM you on my return.

Came across this comment from someone by chance yesterday, which illustrates the kind of things I would like to discern from my data.

A piece of information I’d like to see both ‘live’ and historical, is say the largest 5-10 individual bets matched. My thoughts about a market would be different, if say 100k was matched against a particular horse if that 100k was 70% made up of 7 bets of 10k and 2000 bets making up the rest, than 70k made up of 2000 bets and 3 bets making up 30k.

I have read many of your posts and always found them constructive. I guess I just like your straight talking and way of thinking so I would welcome your comments right or wrong.

Dam here I am in the South of France and today it's pouring with rain but still I have to go out in it !

Catch u later,

Ray

[doris_day]

I just mean that if price movements are out of line with actual events there must be value to be had one way or another. There's no point in betting on a horse if the prices accuratly reflect the probabilities.

Prices probably dont reflect the real chances until the last few minutes before the off imo.

You may or may not be aware that numerous teams, including those of the hugely successful Zeljko Ranogajec, go about their daily routine of manipulating prices prior to the off, so they they can maximise their returns. If, for instance, his form guy says a horse is backable at 6.0, then his team may knock the price out cheaply in the early part of the day to, say, 8.0 and then wait until there are reasonable sums available around that price. They'll then back it heavily. Price manipulation is the name of the game and huge profits can be made by knowing which ones are the target for the day...

[xraymitch]

Hi doris_day,

Thanks for the heads up re Zeljko Ranogajec - all new to me, but have since googled and see what you mean.

As to price manipulation, could you give me an example using the ladder in BA of the actual mechanics involved to implement this ?

And how do you "knock out the price cheaply" ? It's all a bit hazy for me thus I would be really grateful if you could enlighten me if you have the time.

Cheers,

Ray

[doris_day]

By knocking out cheaply I simply mean laying them to push out the prices in the morning. This is done on the cheap because the morning markets are weak. Sometimes the knock out is self perpetuating because as others see the price move out they jump on the bandwagon and push it out even more. Then, later in the day, when more money is available, the team back it more heavily. This way, over time, they create better prices for themselves.
They do the opposite too and its all about knowing what the most accurate price about a horse is. 'Jelko' has a huge team working for him and puts in a great deal of effort and uses similar algorithms to Bill Benter and the late Alan Woods.

[xraymitch]

Thanks D_D,

I am familiar with Benter and Woods and their work in Hong Kong. It's all fascinating stuff !!

Cheers,

Ray