Equalising profit by stake

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Equalising profit by stake

Postby Bassdrinker » Thu Mar 10, 2022 10:41 pm

Sorry for the newbie question. I was confident that Google would help but I'm obviously not using the correct search term.

Simply, how can I alter by stake to get the same profit from a 5 tick lay irrespective of price?

As an example consider these three races. Back at a specific price and assume that a 5 tick lay is matched. (Apologies for formatting)

Race 1 2 3
Back 1.69 4.70 2.94
Lay 1.64 4.20 2.84

Back profit 0.69 3.70 1.94
Lay profit 0.69 3.70 1.94

Profit 0.05 0.50 0.10

As you can see, the overall profit varies according to the price. What I would like to do is make the same profit over 5 ticks by varying the stake.

I appreaciate there are options available when placing bets but I would like the formula to backtest some existing figures.

Any assistance gratefully received.

Regards, Bd
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Re: Equalising profit by stake

Postby Captain Sensible » Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:05 am

If you're not greening up then all you need to do is to take the difference between the opening and closing odds and use that to get your target profit.

So with your examples to win £1 it'd be

Race 1 stake is

£1 divided by the odds difference of 0.05 (1.69-1.64) = £20

Race 2 stake is

£1 divided by the odds difference of 0.5 (4.7-4.2) = £2

Race 3 stake is

£1 divided by the odds difference of 0.1 (2.94-2.84) =£10
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Re: Equalising profit by stake

Postby brumbie » Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:28 am

Or perhaps use % instead of ticks as this would produce same profit every time.
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Re: Equalising profit by stake

Postby Bassdrinker » Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:39 am

Captain Sensible wrote:If you're not greening up then all you need to do is to take the difference between the opening and closing odds and use that


Thanks for the reply CS, it's appreciated. Greening up would probably come into the the mix at some stage but hopefully that should be easier to find.

Regards

Bd
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Re: Equalising profit by stake

Postby Captain Sensible » Fri Mar 11, 2022 1:38 pm

Greening up is a nice easy calcualtion as it's just a balanced equation

Opening stakes X Opening decimal odds = Closing stakes X Closing decimal odds

From there you can rearrange to get all sorts of figures.

Want to make £10 profit then Closing stake can be subsituted to (Opening stake + 10) and the formula rearranged to whatever variable you're after.
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Re: Equalising profit by stake

Postby Bassdrinker » Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:26 pm

Ahhh, that's great thanks. Hopefully I'll be able to help someone in the same spirit one of these days.

Thanks again.

Bd
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