WOM

[danjuma]

I have just started trading the horse racing markets on the exchanges. I mostly scalp the market using the WOM concept using small stakes.

So far, I have experienced some degree of success (basically more winning trades than losing ones). This is mainly due to being aware of 'fake/spoof' money and not trading when I believe this is happening.

However, I find it quite time-consuming and brain-tasking (sitting in front of the PC for hours watching the prices going up and down etc).

I was thinking of writing a trigger to automate (or semi-automate) my trading, which in its simplest form would be easy to do. The only issue is how to guide against placing a trade when there is 'fake/spoof' money about. Not sure how this could be in-corporated in the trigger? Is there a formula or some kind of indicator that could been used in the trigger that would achieve this?

Many thanks.

[Spike]

http://gruss-software.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=3383

[danjuma]

Thanks for the link Spike. I have actually read that thread before and it does not actually address what I am after. The thread is more about using MAs to predict price movement, and towards the end, there's a general suggestion that it might not be reliably applicable to horse racing.

I already have an indicator for predicting price movement - WOM, backed with watching out for fake/spoof money, and not entering a trade when I believe this is happening. My problem is a way of incorporating this bit of sporting fake/spoof money in a trigger so that my trigger won't execute a trade when there is high probability that there's fake/spoof money in play.

Cheers.

[Spike]

If you really want to go with WOM then the way to write a bit of logic or code that filters out spoof money is to ask yourself how you can tell whether money is real or not (when you're looking at it)- maybe an imbalance between the money available for the first odds and the second, money disappears when it gets nibbled etc. Make a series of mathematical tests that define in concrete terms what it is you're looking at (eg ratio between money available in first and second boxes) etc and then when you've got that start on your code. Writing a flow diagram is a good first step to any strategy.

Beware though, thousands like you are watching WOM which is why (as was pointed out in the other thread)- it's not an edge.

[jokerjoe]

Thousands? Just curious, how many active traders do you think there are in a market at any one time?

[Spike]

I'd be guessing- but look how many trading products there are, Gruss, BetAngel, Chromaweb, Bet bot pro (and variations), that Racing Traders one and half a dozen more. They all must have enough customers to keep them going. Seemingly even Fracsoft keep their head above water despite being absolutely shyte and providing a niche product even within trading, which is a niche in itself. How many people does it take paying fees or subscriptions to keep all that lot going?
I assume (and I hope) that Gruss makes a profit, but it only costs £6 a month so even Gruss must have at least 500 subscribers to provide a minimal income and I think Gruss is one of the smaller players (although I don't know this for sure).
God knows how many subscibers the Behemoth "market leader" has.
I think it's pretty safe to say that thousands of people are probably trading on any given race- albeit very few of them are making worthwhile profits.

[danjuma]

If you really want to go with WOM then the way to write a bit of logic or code that filters out spoof money is to ask yourself how you can tell whether money is real or not (when you're looking at it)- maybe an imbalance between the money available for the first odds and the second, money disappears when it gets nibbled etc. Make a series of mathematical tests that define in concrete terms what it is you're looking at (eg ratio between money available in first and second boxes) etc and then when you've got that start on your code. Writing a flow diagram is a good first step to any strategy.

Beware though, thousands like you are watching WOM which is why (as was pointed out in the other thread)- it's not an edge.

Spike, many thanks for your advise. I shall give this a thought. Cheers