To BACK or To LAY

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To BACK or To LAY

Postby thunderfoot » Tue Jul 07, 2009 4:12 pm

Below is a list showing SP Odds and the average Betfair Odds that you could have got. It's based on c. 45,000 recorded odds from Betfair.

SP Odds……………BF BACK Odds……………%'age Diff.…………….……Occ'ns.……..…………Wins
1.07………………………1.08………………………100.8%………………………1………………………1
1.08………………………1.09………………………100.6%………………………2………………………2
1.10………………………1.11………………………100.5%………………………2………………………1
1.11………………………1.13………………………101.7%………………………1………………………1
1.13………………………1.13………………………100.4%………………………2………………………2
1.15………………………1.15………………………99.7%………………………1………………………1
1.17………………………1.19………………………101.6%………………………2………………………2
1.18………………………1.19………………………101.0%………………………3………………………2
1.20………………………1.22………………………101.5%………………………6………………………5
1.22………………………1.25………………………102.5%………………………9………………………7
1.25………………………1.28………………………102.4%………………………15………………………12
1.29………………………1.33………………………103.8%………………………13………………………12
1.30………………………1.33………………………102.5%………………………5………………………4
1.33………………………1.37………………………102.9%………………………12………………………8
1.36………………………1.39………………………102.0%………………………16………………………13
1.40………………………1.46………………………104.5%………………………28………………………20
1.44………………………1.50………………………103.9%………………………33………………………27
1.50………………………1.56………………………104.0%………………………45………………………30
1.53………………………1.60………………………104.5%………………………24………………………11
1.57………………………1.65………………………105.1%………………………33………………………18
1.62………………………1.69………………………104.4%………………………39………………………22
1.67………………………1.76………………………105.7%………………………71………………………36
1.73………………………1.83………………………105.8%………………………81………………………36
1.80………………………1.95………………………108.1%………………………76………………………41
1.83………………………1.94………………………106.0%………………………67………………………37
1.90………………………2.03………………………106.7%………………………12………………………8
1.91………………………2.05………………………107.2%………………………75………………………39
2.00………………………2.14………………………107.0%………………………110………………………46
2.10………………………2.25………………………107.3%………………………105………………………38
2.20………………………2.31………………………104.8%………………………51………………………31
2.25………………………2.42………………………107.4%………………………137………………………64
2.38………………………2.53………………………106.4%………………………155………………………71
2.50………………………2.71………………………108.3%………………………197………………………58
2.63………………………2.81………………………107.2%………………………154………………………47
2.75………………………2.96………………………107.6%………………………257………………………99
2.88………………………3.07………………………106.8%………………………205………………………67
3.00………………………3.29………………………109.6%………………………454………………………139
3.13………………………3.34………………………106.9%………………………12………………………4
3.25………………………3.54………………………109.0%………………………469………………………136
3.50………………………3.82………………………109.3%………………………581………………………139
3.75………………………4.08………………………108.9%………………………596………………………148
4.00………………………4.44………………………111.1%………………………802………………………179
4.33………………………4.70………………………108.4%………………………140………………………30
4.33………………………4.71………………………108.7%………………………217………………………40
4.50………………………5.10………………………113.3%………………………1056………………………192
5.00………………………5.63………………………112.6%………………………1292………………………237
5.50………………………6.22………………………113.0%………………………1121………………………193
6.00………………………6.88………………………114.7%………………………1158………………………159
6.50………………………7.40………………………113.9%………………………951………………………135
7.00………………………8.12………………………116.0%………………………1239………………………167
7.50………………………8.68………………………115.8%………………………758………………………85
8.00………………………9.59………………………119.9%………………………1596………………………158
8.50………………………9.80………………………115.2%………………………591………………………49
9.00………………………11.10………………………123.3%………………………2350………………………204
9.50………………………11.48………………………120.9%………………………254………………………19
10.00………………………12.51………………………125.1%………………………1229………………………95
11.00………………………14.55………………………132.2%………………………1944………………………145
12.00………………………15.15………………………126.2%………………………818………………………75
13.00………………………18.03………………………138.7%………………………2460………………………146
15.00………………………22.23………………………148.2%………………………2546………………………120
17.00………………………26.61………………………156.6%………………………2953………………………105
19.00………………………25.95………………………136.6%………………………352………………………13
21.00………………………37.94………………………180.7%………………………2676………………………74
23.00………………………33.65………………………146.3%………………………416………………………18
26.00………………………57.03………………………219.3%………………………2419………………………50
27.00………………………21.50………………………79.6%………………………2………………………0
29.00………………………46.42………………………160.1%………………………468………………………9
32.00………………………22.00………………………68.8%………………………1………………………0
34.00………………………92.50………………………272.1%………………………2730………………………38
41.00………………………89.72………………………218.8%………………………1036………………………11
51.00………………………242.12………………………474.7%………………………2003………………………14
55.00………………………107.50………………………195.5%………………………2………………………0
67.00………………………266.79………………………398.2%………………………1170………………………10
81.00………………………238.38………………………294.3%………………………235………………………2
101.00………………………438.64………………………434.3%………………………990………………………1
126.00………………………559.54………………………444.1%………………………65………………………0
151.00………………………706.95………………………468.2%………………………210………………………1
201.00………………………864.38………………………430.0%………………………185………………………0
251.00………………………964.30………………………384.2%………………………93………………………0
301.00………………………988.46………………………328.4%………………………13………………………0

It's widely 'published' that you can get c. 25% or more better odds on Betfair than at a Bookmaker, but that 25% is based on an average, and it's only the really high odds that start to bump-up that average.

The table shows that :-
A) LAYERS should be using the lower end of the Odds Range as the Odds available are close to the Bookmakers Odds, and the 'DailyDonkeys'!!! If the Bookmakers make their money by LAYING then that's where you need to be.
b) BACKERS should be using the higher end of the market because that's where the 'value' is. It's obviously at this end of the table where the Bookmakers really make their money by LAYING.

All pretty obvious really, but thought I'd share the data with you. :wink:
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Postby milfor » Tue Jul 07, 2009 5:39 pm

Very interesting :shock:
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Postby jokerjoe » Tue Jul 07, 2009 9:43 pm

Interesting though as you say not too surprising. Do you take requests? I keep on meaning to look into the efficiency of the market. What I was thinking was bracket the data into say 20 percentiles of implied probability, and then see what proportion of runners in those brackets win. Presumably there shouldn't be too much discrepancy between that proportion and the percentile it comes from. Would that be a valid approach?
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Postby thunderfoot » Tue Jul 14, 2009 11:50 am

Just for clarification, "BF BACK Odds" are the odds available on Betfair 10 seconds before the scheduled off time.
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