Over-round/Under-round

[bmann13]

Has anyone on this excellent forum figured out how to take advantage of the over/under-round on Betfair. A program on the market already does this. I will not mention it incase you guys think I am trying to promote it. Personally speaking, it is over priced and can be done for free, well I would do it for free if I knew how to program in Excel.

Perhaps you Excel gurus in this forum could have a look at it.

Thanks

bob

[Dedes]

I know the software you're talking about and I agree that's overpriced and overcomplicated too.

It's on my plans to developed something similar with BA and Excel but the problem at least to me is that I don't beleive that its a very profitable situation. Everybody keeps saying that making a "book" is very dificult, so maybe its time consuming.

What do you all think?

[D Splash]

I think it is becoming more popular. If nothing else it could be a useful exercise for everyone to join in.

[Mitch]

It sounds easy-ish but then again every vba project I start takes longer than I think it should

The problem is (in my opinion) that by the time BA has put the info into Excel, the macro has identified an opportunity, requested that the bets be placed, and BA has read the bet requests and placed them with Betfair, I would very much doubt that all of the bets would be matched, especially with commercial API software doing the same thing but quicker.
No doubt if I tried to back the field for a small profit but 1 bet failed to be matched, I'm sure we all know which horse would win!

Feel free to disagree with me if you think I'm wrong.

[thunderfoot]

The problem is that most over/under-rounds only appear in 'In-Play' markets, so once they've been spotted, they're long gone by the time the software fires in the bets.



..... but I'm willing to be corrected!!

[Mitch]

Just got bored and had a little play around with this.
Anyone that uses it does so at their own risk blah blah blah etc.

Right-Click the tab for the Excel sheet you are using and select "View Code" then paste this in.

Code: Select all

Private Sub Worksheet_Change(ByVal Target As Excel.Range)

    Dim bp As Double, lp As Double
    Dim i As Integer, lastrow As Integer
   
    If Target.Columns.Count <> 13 Then Exit Sub
    Application.EnableEvents = False
   
    lastrow = Target.Rows.Count
    lastrow = 14
   
    bp = 0
    lp = 0
   
    For i = 5 To lastrow
        If Cells(i, 6) > 1 Then
            bp = bp + (1 / Cells(i, 6))
            Else
            bp = 0
            Exit Sub
        End If
    Next i
    Cells(lastrow + 1, 6) = Format(bp, "#.0%")
   
    If bp < 1 Then
        For i = 5 To lastrow
            Cells(i, 14) = "BACK"
            Cells(i, 15) = Cells(i, 6)
            Cells(i, 16) = WorksheetFunction.Round _
                (10 / Cells(i, 6), 2)
        Next i
    End If
   
    For i = 5 To lastrow
        If Cells(i, 8) > 1 Then
            lp = lp + (1 / Cells(i, 8))
            Else
            lp = 0
            Exit Sub
        End If
    Next i
    Cells(lastrow + 1, 8) = Format(lp, "#.0%")
   
    If lp > 1 Then
        For i = 5 To lastrow
            Cells(i, 14) = "LAY"
            Cells(i, 15) = Cells(i, 8)
            Cells(i, 16) = WorksheetFunction.Round _
                (10 / Cells(i, 8), 2)
        Next i
    End If
   
    Application.EnableEvents = True
   
End Sub

The "10" in the following 2 lines is the amount that it backs each horse to win in the first line, and the amount that it lays each horse to lose in the second one. Change the 10 to whatever you want to.

Cells(i, 16) = WorksheetFunction.Round _
(10 / Cells(i, 6), 2)
Cells(i, 16) = WorksheetFunction.Round _
(10 / Cells(i, 8 ), 2)

Someone shout at me if the maths is wrong, I've not tested it in a real market with BA yet.

Still don't think it will make money though

[PeteB]

I can't see there being much money to make here - it is much easier to spot opportunties trading a single selection, and much safer.
If you're going to try this, you need to understand the reduction factor rules - it's possible that you could make bets across selections that are profitable when you make them, but which lock in a loss if a horse is removed and the existing bets are adjusted - be very careful!!

[Nutter Punter]

The problem is guys that you are all blinkered and think about Horses as the only market on Betfair.

I have been using over/under round software on Betfair for ages and especially in Play (where I monitor it) in various markets and make good money from it. At least £2000-3000 a month of my income comes from these arbs.

[D Splash]

It never occured to me about reduction factors PeteB, how much impact would one withdrawal make ?
Nutter, what markets would we most likely find over/under round's in.

[bmann13]

The problem is guys that you are all blinkered and think about Horses as the only market on Betfair.

I have been using over/under round software on Betfair for ages and especially in Play (where I monitor it) in various markets and make good money from it. At least £2000-3000 a month of my income comes from these arbs.

NP, I am all for Arbs that is why I started this thread. I will try to follow any market that allows for arbs so would really appreciate it if you could share with us which markets you find your arbs in on betfair. Also if you could kindly share how use use BT to place you arbs if indeed you use it.

Thank you all for contributing to this thread.

[Nutter Punter]

I never try it in horses but use it for various football/rugby markets and make a lot of money from it by going in-play. Of course if you ise it in play and miss a price you have to manually match the unmatched bet.

[thunderfoot]

Do I assume therefore that you are not actually ARB'ing (i.e. placing a bet at the same time on different selections) but 'Trading' (i.e. placing an opposite bet on the same selection when the market goes in your favour)?

[Nutter Punter]

Thunderfoot I am arbing as both trades take place at the same time locking in a guaranteed profit. I only have to monitor if it goes in play as occasionally I may miss one side of the arb and then technically you could call it trading as I chase the other.

[Tykhe]

Hi,

I'm trying to make dutching lay bets. But I've problems about it.
There is a game between Gaudio-Calleri(tennis) now.
Excel finds the odds over 100 % and sends LAY command but only one of them is ok.
The odds for Gaudio is about 1.8 and 2.14 for Calleri and it is about 102 %.
Software puts a bet 2.8 @ 2.14 but the other bet is 4 @ 1.01.

I don't understand what the problem is. Is it about to put bets at the same time?
Or something wrong with my trigger? I'm not sure.
Any idea for this problem?

IF(ISNUMBER(Q5),"CLEAR",IF(S22="LAY","LAY", ""))
IF(ISNUMBER(Q6),"CLEAR",IF(S22="LAY","LAY", ""))
This is my trigger.

Thanks...

[tkp]

Hi all.....back for a while as summer seems to be over, there's an API version from Gary and I have nothing better to do than lose some money on betfair !

So - if you want an arbing spreadsheet to go with garys .99q version then I can send you a copy...it's in excel though...works on back and lay (thanks to whomever it was a while ago who helped me with the lay side). (if enough people want it I'll stick it on some free webspace somewhere)...

Horses - it's never quick enough for horses.......

My strategy has been to look for the opportunities on the multitude of other sports and get on them (and they happen a lot!).

tkp