by tom19235 » Wed Apr 24, 2013 3:27 pm
Hello
I have the following scenario. I have a theoretical probability of an event
in a very illiquid market as say 50% or decimal odds of 2.0
The best back at the moment is 3.05, so I want to dime that best back and submit a back order at 3.00. Decimal odds of 3.0 correspond to a 33% chance. I only stake 2GBP per 1% difference, so in this example, I will bet (50%-33% = 17% * 2GBP = 34GBP at odds of 3.0
This is all fine and working.
Later in the day, another market user improves the best back to 2.98.
Then my excel sheet, using the UPDATE trigger and a lot of the logic from the Chase_Price spreadsheet provided, improves my bet to 2.96 and sits and wait. However, even though I alter the stake size in the cell S5 to reflect the new odds (there is less value now at 2.96 than at 3.0 so I want to do less size - I scale the stake linearly down to zero as the back odds approach my theoretical probability of 2.0), the 34GBP stake is just moved to the new odds and the stake amount is not updated.
My question is, how do I update the odds and the stake at the same time?
Regards.