by one cool dog » Thu Mar 30, 2006 7:18 pm
Hi George
I am, unfortunately, a moron and did not get a simplistic fact the other day, even though I though my idea was brilliant.
Basically, it was insurance that you never lost - that's basically where it falls on its backside. Don't get me wrong, I'm not genuinely thick or am a virgin user of Betfair, I've been using it for years, I just thought it was possible given a few things that happened by accident.
Let me paint my picture. I lay purely in-running as I am a semi-pro racereader and Gary's software as given me a brilliant new angle into this.
I will identify horses in-running who appear to be going poorly and will override a lay at a max of 12.0 on BA. I have made just over £900 in 2 months doing so, but have probably lost 2/3 of that in poor judgement to, so I have been doing some bank repairing recently while I semi-die of flu. I never blew the bank completely, nowhere near, just want to get it back to the level I feel comfortable withdrawing again.
So, let's say I lay a horse early who appears to be not going well - don't do it kids because they are a killer - and I am sitting on a bad bet that is not going to go out anywhere near what I laid at. You have to sit and just hope it finds zilch. Or, a horse just catches you out at a smaller price and you lay it a couple of times - by the way, I don't have verify bets ticked on BA either.
My big plan was to have an amount ready to be triggered at 1.5 to nulify the whole bet. Basically, so it said 0.00 next to every horse rather than greens and reds. Now I was sure, by mistake probably, that I have hit the back button rapidly before when I thought I was going to lose and somehow, once, it had got me all green - my standard override back price on BA is 1.5.
So rather than keep whacking the back button as fast as I could, I thought there might be a way of setting a trigger to back a horse - Id have to do it during the race knowing the potential loss - if the horse I laid went 1.5. All of my logic was completely flawed and my maths sucks. I can handle a horse I laid hitting 1.5 and still losing - which is always easily possible - but laying and not regaining anything does irk me if I get it wrong.
I don't have a massive bank to play with but I do have the advantage of using SIS feed, and they are a massive advantage let me assure you. If I am quick enough, and my judgement is sound, I could potentially make some half-decent money, and I would gladly cut someone in if they had good ideas how to stop whacking losses being taken - after thorough tetsing though. The worst senario is usually when a race effectively becomes two runner, over fences, one looks beat so you lay it, but the other finds nothing and you don't know which way to turn, as you have massive reds on both in the end!
If anyone has any ideas on how it can be achieved or if stoploss is the way, please give me a shout.