Trigger Backing using Excel

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Postby one cool dog » Sat Mar 25, 2006 11:22 am

I am still not really getting this and feel free to walk away and ignore me If i am doing your head in.

I still don't get, from what you said in your reply, why it does not make all things level, no matter whether the horse wins, places or tails off. The basis of the system is that whatever the result, if a horse hits 1.5 it puts up your back bet to compensate any potential loss.

If the horse I lay at 3.0 for £20 does not hit 1.5, then it will obviously never get matched and you pocket £20.

If I lay first, I stand to win £20. If it hits 1.5 - therefore making it look like it could win - how would I construct a bet to make the whole thing equal? So whether it won or lost, no money was lost. I do kinda think I see what you mean about if it hit 1.5 and it lost, but surely there is a mathematical way of negating the whole win/loss senario.

The stop loss spreadsheet looks the most interesting, could someone explain how that works to me.
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Postby Mitch » Sat Mar 25, 2006 11:39 am

but surely there is a mathematical way of negating the whole win/loss senario


No.

You want to lay a horse, then if it looks like its going to win place a bet to leave you even if it wins or loses?

If you lay at 3.0, the ONLY way to "level off" the bet is to BACK at 3.0

I don't know how else I can explain it.

Sorry if I'm still not getting what you mean.
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Postby one cool dog » Sat Mar 25, 2006 2:37 pm

Ok, my maths and thoughts could be wildly wrong and let me assume it is not possible.

What then, does a stop loss spreadsheet do? That is open to anyone.
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Postby robcpettit » Sat Mar 25, 2006 7:55 pm

Hi. I had a similar problem getting to grips with hedging bets, basically the stoploss prevents the loss being grater if the horse goes onto win. This was my question:
'if I back 4.1 @ £34.15, lay 3.5 @ £40, if matched then if wins £5.86 prof if loose £5.86 prof approx. But if the back didnt get matched and stoploss fires at 2.44 @ £57.55 then loss of £17.20. My query is if stoploss had put a bet for 2.44 @ £70 we would been up 80p. What am I missing here.' Not exactly the same as yours, but I was trying to hedge the bet. So I was putting the lay bet in first, waiting for it to go inrunning then sending the back bet in. If it didnt get matched then the stoploss fired. For ages I couldnt see why I couldnt send a bigger amount in on the stoploss to even out the bet. The answer I got was:
'Robert, if the stoploss fired and the horse went on to lose anyway then you would be down even more as you only stand to win £34.15 from it losing.. Your point about putting in a larger back at the stoploss odds is only effective IF the horse goes on to win ie you win 80p. If it goes on to lose you would lose &70-£34.15( profit from your lay)= £35.85 loss as opposed to £17.20 with a stop loss back of £57.55. Hope that this helps.'
Id made the mistake of thinking that because the odds were shorting the race was in the bag, and the money was mine. It only works if the horse wins, if it loose you loose more. I hope this give you another angle. Ive certainly learnt more from following your current threads.
Regards Robert
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Postby one cool dog » Sat Mar 25, 2006 9:24 pm

Cheers for the response and I am just being thick I guess.
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