Stop at a profit

[Des911]

Been trying to work it out but I'm struggling being new to this.

I want to stop lays being placed if I've reached a certain profit level.

i.e. say, using £2 stakes I want BA to stop placing lays once I've made £10 profit.

Is this possible?

[MarkRussell]

Hi,

When you say you want it to stop placing lay bets.....how have you been submitting them in the first place?

Are you triggering your bets via Excel?

Regards,
Mark

[Des911]

Yep sorry, I'm triggering them with an excel sheet and keeping an eye on them so I can close the sheet when I've reached my profit target.

Thanks for your reply,

Des

[Yorkie]

just add into your trigger formula that if the sum of column D of your results sheet is greater than your profit stop then the trigger doesn't trigger. You could factor your betfair commission into it too if you wanted to make it clear profit.

[doris_day]

As an aside, I've never been able to understand the concept of 'stop at a profit', unless of course you never intend on betting that system/algorithm/whatever again.

If you have an edge, you have an edge and stopping at any stage will only reduce your profitability.

Can someone explain the logic of this method ?

[osknows]

My view is I think 'Stop at Profit' is just like sampling a larger population. Some days when you stop there will be potential future losses and sometimes more profit. In effect it will just reduce your turnover and may appear to give you more winning days but as doris_day said if you have an edge, stopping at any stage will only reduce your profitability.

I have been known to 'Stop at Profit' occasionally, although I call it 'Stop pushing my luck!'


There was an interesting article in the New Scientist a few weeks ago about betting and an example they gave was.

If you had to call 100 insurance companies to get a quote what is the best way to ensure you get the best quote without calling all 100?

The first solution said that if you called the first 50, then if you take the next best quote given after the first 50 would give you a 25% chance of getting the best quote.

A second solution said take the natural log (e=2.72) and divide the 100/2.72 = 37. Call the first 37 then take the next best quote after the first 37 would give you a 37% chance of gettting the best quote

They then said you could apply this to betting as when best to stop.

Not sure what they were on about though as I could only see this relating to profit or blow out...?

[NorthView]

As an aside, I've never been able to understand the concept of 'stop at a profit', unless of course you never intend on betting that system/algorithm/whatever again.

If you have an edge, you have an edge and stopping at any stage will only reduce your profitability.

Can someone explain the logic of this method ?

There isn't really any logic to it, just as there's no logic to stop at a loss systems.

It's not as if the horses are aware of the results of previous races and this knowledge makes them run any differently, so if your system is a profitable one you should try to exert your edge as often as possible.

[doris_day]

Well I'm glad I wasn't missing anything obvious

[dgs2001]

There is a case for this if backing dogs in the evening with some sort of progressive staking system. Betfair get slow at settling evening dog markets.

That asside I think it is a state of mind thing.

We all know the way the ups and downs of a gamblers bank plays mind tricks.
If you get home and find you were up £10 at 2.30pm but by the time you return at 4.30pm your down £2.70 then the doubts can start to creep in, that feeling that I shoud've stopped when I was up.
Rarely if we do stop with the £10 do we then check to see how much more we could have had later

If however you've done all the forecasting sums/ losing run/ strike rate etc. and are staking correctly then there should be no doubt

Duncan

[Des911]

I was told that during the day the dog races are of a pretty low standard which improves in the evenings. So far I'm happy with a set profit during the day and have found that leaving the bot to run during the evening reduces my profits.

Thanks for the input.

[osknows]

I suppose then that your system excludes evening races in which case you are not stopping at profit anymore.

So everyone is in agreement?

[Des911]

I suppose then that your system excludes evening races in which case you are not stopping at profit anymore.

So everyone is in agreement?

But I'm also stopping at a loss

[Des911]

I suppose then that your system excludes evening races in which case you are not stopping at profit anymore.

So everyone is in agreement?

It doesn't exclude evening racing, it's simply that my profit has been made before it starts. Is there something wrong with making a profit??

[Ian]

I was told that during the day the dog races are of a pretty low standard which improves in the evenings. So far I'm happy with a set profit during the day and have found that leaving the bot to run during the evening reduces my profits.

Thanks for the input.

It is not true that there is always better standard dogs running in the evening particularly if you are betting on the BAGS races. For instance, the quality of dogs running at at Hove in the morning will be much higher overall than those running at Poole in the evening. Perhaps you should look at which tracks provide you with your profit, rather than just an morning/afternoon/evening split ?

[Des911]

Good idea, thanks Ian.