Elizabeth Coffee

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Elizabeth Coffee

Postby xraymitch » Sat Jun 28, 2014 8:55 pm

5 minutes before the race I had a £100 at 2.62 on Elizabeth Coffee which drifted out to at least 3.5. Not watching racecourse on screen so assumed there was something wrong yet she went on to win easily.

I am confused as to why it drifted so dramitacally. Can anyone enlighten me.

Thanks 8)
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Postby xraymitch » Sat Jun 28, 2014 9:16 pm

Sorry in my haste I forgot to say I am talking about the 8:45pm race at Doncaster 28/06/2014. Elizabeth Coffee won it by 7 lengths.
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Postby Captain Sensible » Sun Jun 29, 2014 2:14 pm

Can't remember the race as I was watching the football but it opened 6/4 and drifted to 2/1 on course so nothing unusual there, maybe some other runner were more fancied . 2.62 about a 6/4 shot is low for Betfair you'd expect it to be bigger especially on a drifter in a small field in a 114% on course book.

A lot can happen in 5 minutes on Betfair and seems to be a combination of small field, low liquidity for the last race etc If you look on the timeform site just about every runner's BSP was 20% above the industry because they were betting to a ridiculous 115% on course
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Postby xraymitch » Tue Jul 01, 2014 8:54 am

Thanks Captain for your insightful reply.

Your comments are always appreciated.

8)
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Postby Ian » Tue Jul 01, 2014 1:37 pm

Captain Sensible wrote:Can't remember the race as I was watching the football but it opened 6/4 and drifted to 2/1 on course so nothing unusual there, maybe some other runner were more fancied . 2.62 about a 6/4 shot is low for Betfair you'd expect it to be bigger especially on a drifter in a small field in a 114% on course book.

A lot can happen in 5 minutes on Betfair and seems to be a combination of small field, low liquidity for the last race etc If you look on the timeform site just about every runner's BSP was 20% above the industry because they were betting to a ridiculous 115% on course


The bookmakers from whom they took the SP were betting to an average of 115%. The means by which the SP is calculated means that you are almost certian to be able to get bigger on course.
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