Trigger Backing using Excel

[jmorrell]

Hi, is there a full explanation of trigger betting etc...As ive just had a go at it only to lose £160 . What i wanted to do was back the horse which odds goto 1.1 In Play probably after the final fence towards the run in. So Put BACK in all the trigger column, My my odds at 1.1 and my stake in. I then noticed it just did what i could of done in the program. It backed every horse. thats not what i wanted to do BAH! i thought. and BAH! i thought again with -£160 next to the winner. But oh well these things happens. especially to me

So heres what i clearly wanted to do...

During the race, whichever horse(s) odds reach 1.1 i want to back it automatically with a chosen steak.

Hello to everyone on the forum btw


Kind Regards
joe

[jmorrell]

ok i've done some searching and working out what i need to do....going to test it out for tomorrow meetings. It is going to move along the picklist 5 Minutes before the off. Assuming that it doesn't matter and is not a problem backing after the off. Each race should auto load itself into excel. And use the following if statement in the trigger Cell.

=IF(F21<=1.2,"BACK","NOT HIT MY TARGET YET") (found this searching the forum thankyou who posted it)

Now i want to back what should be the winner at 1.1. As our fingers sometimes just aren't fast enough with betfair or using software. And once fully working i can go out and leave it to it.

Now...I've put in the stake Cell £10. Are there any precautions i need to pay attention too?

Thanks

[tkp]

There is an example of how to do this here:

http://domain921509.sites.fasthosts.com ... c.php?t=15

Basically you don't want the Trigger to read back until the horses price REACH 1.1 hence - it's a trigger.

The way to do this is to have an if statement......

=IF(BACKPRICE_CELL<=1.1,"BACK","NOT YET")

so if you back price cell is the default F5 your function is

=IF(F5<=1.1,"BACK","NOT YET")

Simple - this will ensure only THOSE horses which reach 1.1 will be backed. Remeber to populate the Odds and Stake cells.

Couple of simple warnings I have learnt the hard (cash) way.....

1: While this may seem a simple way to make money - with horse racing neck and neck situations cause the prices of both front runners to dip quite low.
1.1 may seem low but winning such small % profit means that if you loose one or two races in a day you will wipe out all or more off your profit (unless you have a good way of dutching the lowest two or three in the race).
I've tried this daily down to 1.03 and still have loosers !

2: Careful of the change between "Not In Play" and "In-Play"
Prices drop to 1.03 or 1.04 across all runners - so again you would be backing the field.
(I actually made a substantial profit of £57 whilst testing with just £2.00 stakes because this error backed 2 long outsiders for me !!! Better to be born lucky! )


There are ways to counter both of the above....let me know if you want more.
tkp

[jmorrell]

Thankyou for your excellent reply. I forgot about what happens to the odds just after the off, how could i get past that. Do you do this method successfully? if so could you email me a excel. That would be great. if not no probs, You have risen two very important factors so if you could tell me how to get past these problems that would also be excellent.

e.g. not to Bet if two runners are below 2.5 or whatever. As you sound as if you have tested these methods what would you recommend i test it with.

regards
Joe

[tkp]

I have been trying to do this for a long time (in fact it was this very concept of finding winners that originally brought me to Gary's software) - the only way I have found is 100% accurate is to actually watch the race !

However, I don't mind sending you the spreadsheet.

PM me with your email address.

tkp

[thunderfoot]

I have been trying to do this for a long time (in fact it was this very concept of finding winners that originally brought me to Gary's software) - the only way I have found is 100% accurate is to actually watch the race !

The EXCEL way to make sure you don't fire-in bets as the race goes In-Play is to have a macro enter a 'Time-stamp' into a cell as the race goes In-Play. Then you set your formula not to make a 'trigger' bet unless NOW() is 'x' seconds past your 'Time-stamped' cell.

[one cool dog]

Hi Guys

Hope you do not mind if I butt in here, to go along the same route and my idea on the suggestions section.

Does this make sense to anyone, and can I have help with a spreadsheet if it is possible - open to negotiations if it can be done.

Let's say that on any given day of racing, there could be five or six favourites under 3.0 (Betfair prices)

Now if I was to lay all those favourites to win £20, and three lost, you've won £60.

However, and to make things a bit more sensible and easy to manage, after laying the fav to win £20 if it loses, can you set one of these trigger bet things to match at 1.5 (for £40) if the horse goes to that price in-running.

This way, if the horse goes to 1.5 ( which means it must look a likely winner) the bet is zeroed and nothing lost. The flip side is that if a horse under 3.0 misses the break, hits trouble in-running etc and loses, that price will never get matched and the £20 is safe.

Of course you can become more daring the more you consistently hit the mark, but you are effectively making every race a no lose race.

What are the potential pitfulls if any, and is it possible?

[Dai_Young]

Main flaw I can see is that if the horse goes to 1.5 and gets beat you will be £20 down

[thunderfoot]

However, and to make things a bit more sensible and easy to manage, after laying the fav to win £20 if it loses, can you set one of these trigger bet things to match at 1.5 (for £40) if the horse goes to that price in-running.
This way, if the horse goes to 1.5 ( which means it must look a likely winner) the bet is zeroed and nothing lost.

Ummmm, it may be me and my maths but I make it that if you LAY £20 @ 3.00 then BACK £40 @1.50, you lose £20!!!
i.e. LAY £20 @ 3.00 = Risk Liability £40; Possible Win = £20: BACK £40 @ 1.50 = Risk Liability £40; Possible Win = £20.
If horse Wins you lose LAY Risk £40 but win BACK bet of £20 ... Profit -£20
If horse loses (& doesn't touch 1.50) you win £40 as the BACK bet hasn't been triggered.

[thunderfoot]

Dai ... you beat me on "Fastest Finger"!!!

[Dai_Young]

I love dashing peoples hopes thunderfoot

[thunderfoot]

Ahhhh!!! Just noticed ... Leicester man, Bath will stuff 'em tomorrow

[tkp]

I have been trying to do this for a long time (in fact it was this very concept of finding winners that originally brought me to Gary's software) - the only way I have found is 100% accurate is to actually watch the race !

The EXCEL way to make sure you don't fire-in bets as the race goes In-Play is to have a macro enter a 'Time-stamp' into a cell as the race goes In-Play. Then you set your formula not to make a 'trigger' bet unless NOW() is 'x' seconds past your 'Time-stamped' cell.

Thanks for that thunderfoot - however, I don't have a problem with triggers firing around the in-play change over.......what I have been trying to do is make a profit from backing winners at the end of a race....but I will keep the timestamp in mind should I ever need it.

tkp

[one cool dog]

Hi there.

Thanks for taking the time to answer but I must be going mad here, so let me explain it one more time and hope it makes more sense this way.
Lets make it two completely seperate races.

In Race A

I lay Horse A at 3.0 for £20 - my potential winnings are £20 minus commission , while if it loses, I will lose £40 from my bank. Horse A loses and I am down £40. Grabbing any total from the air, lets say my starting bank was £350. If Horse A lost and I won, my bank would be nearly £370. If it lost, my bank would show £310.

Right, so now I am on a recovery mission, so in Race B I back horse B at 1.5 for £80. That horse wins, I win £40 and my bank now returns to £350.

I think that is all very clear and we all know that to be true.

For it to work it must be one horse per race (perhaps I did not make that clear) in case more than one horse hits 1.5.

So combining the examples os races a and b above, why is it not possible to do it in one race with just one horse. The problem with Betfair is that you cannot put up a bet request of 1.5 during a race as it will automatically give you the biggest odds. If you can somehow using excel, which sounds possible, you can put that insurance in, then whilst you may not win every time, you don't lose. Hopefully, if the fav meets trouble or never gets into the race - and it does not need to be a real short one - its price will never hit anywhere near 1.5, thus your trigger bet never gets matched.

Id be so greatful if you can explain where the problem is with that idea? Is it because that if it hits 1.5 and the bet matches, the bets become completely level. Let's now say it goes as short as 1.1 and then kicks right out again as it gets beaten. Does it then match again at 1.5 on the way out? If so, can a formula be written so that is avoided?

[Mitch]

You're right in what you're saying apart from the fact that if you back the horse because it hits 1.5 then it doesn't win the race, you lose.

You win £20 for the LAY and lose £80 on the BACK.

The bet only becomes "completely level" as you put it, if the horse goes on to win the race.

Try backing the first horse that reaches 1.5 in every race and see how much you win.
Or even every favourite that reaches 1.5, you might win more!