Champions League green-up opportunity?

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Champions League green-up opportunity?

Postby montague » Sat May 28, 2011 11:46 am

Just looking for some views on a Champions League final bet.

I have back Barcelona to win on penalties and also Man Utd to win on penalties. Both have a stake of £100 and both are at Befair odds of 14.0.

Now here's my observation. The draw (in 90 minutes play) is trading at 3.55 (to lay). If I were to lay this for the right amount, then lay the draw again on the extra-time market (should it go to extra time and be a similar price for the extra time market), can I guarantee myself a profit whatever the outcome?
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Postby Ian » Sat May 28, 2011 12:23 pm

You are forgetting that only one of the outcomes can win therefore you are backing a win on pens ((14 - 1) / 2) + 1 = 7.5. You would need to be able the draw in extra time at around 2.0 to guarantee any profit and then there is commission to take into account.
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Postby Ian » Sat May 28, 2011 12:24 pm

You would need to be able lay the draw in extra time at around 2.0 to guarantee any profit and then there is commission to take into account.
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