Moderator: 2020vision
by sam84 » Wed Feb 24, 2021 2:28 pm
by NorthView » Thu Feb 25, 2021 1:14 pm
by sam84 » Sun Feb 28, 2021 1:46 am
by sam84 » Sun Feb 28, 2021 2:05 am
by NorthView » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:39 pm
sam84 wrote:Thanks for the reply.
Just doing a load of analysis (the run is still continuing..)
Looking at in-running odds to see if those who might have been expected to win, did, or didn't..
So from Dec 26 - Feb 14, when things were going well:
548 horses hit less than 3.0 in running
Average in-running odds - 1.52 (Expectation then that 65% should win?)
Actual number of winners - 244 (44.53%)
From Feb 15, when things turned:
179 horses hit less than 3.0 in running
Average in-running odds - 1.62 (Expectation then that 61% should win?)
Actual number of winners - 54 (30.17%)
Of these 179, 121 actually hit under 2.0 in running
(Average in-running odds 1.26) (Expectation that 79% should win?)
Actual number of winners - 54 (44.63%)
To complete this picture - from Dec 26 - Feb 14:
396 hit under 2.0 in running, at an average in-running odds of 1.18 (Expectation that 84% should win?)
Of these 396, 244 won (61.62%)
**
My conclusion, simplistic perhaps, is that I've just hit a brick wall in terms of results and that I expect things to turn around or at least improve to profitability, given the continued beating of BSP.
The strike rate stats are:
Pre Feb 15:
1076 bets
7.49 average taken price
6.75 average BSP
244 winners (22.68%)
Profit: +228.78pts
548 hit under 3.0 in running (50.93%)
396 hit under 2.0 in running (36.8%)
(1467 laid off for loss of 155.85pts)
*Overall Profit: +72.93pts*
Post Feb 15:
357 bets
7.41 average taken price
6.79 average BSP
54 winners (15.13%)
Profit: -108.14pts
179 hit under 3.0 in running (50.14%)
121 hit under 2.0 in running (33.89%)
(494 laid off for further loss of 53.6pts)
*Overall Profit: -161.74pts*
For my system to work, I obviously need to win more from my backs (horses not laid off) than I lose from the lays.
Through this latest period, I've had 18 horses hit 1.22 or shorter and not win, including at prices 25, 18, 10 and 9.
If you looked at the graph (don't know how to insert pictures, you'd see a steady upwards rise before a very sudden downturn.
I suppose the question is, was the period prior to Feb 15 actually the flukey one, it's possible I suppose? If not I can expect a correction in the coming weeks back to the black, I have my doubts though.
Probably I need to run things for six months to see how things pan out, minimum.
by NorthView » Sun Feb 28, 2021 12:42 pm
by watso12 » Tue Apr 06, 2021 4:28 pm
by sam84 » Mon May 03, 2021 7:23 am
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