Placing a Dutch bet when there isn't a Dutch profit

[hughsiepops]

I have been looking into an idea of using dutching and recovery staking. However, one problem I have come across is that if the available odds don't let you achieve your profit Aim then the BA interface greys out the dutching option so I would be unable to place the bet.

As I would be looking at using recovery with the staking I am not purely concerned about making my £10 'Aim' per race, but equally concerned about recovering any previous losses

Example : I am Aiming to win £10 per race

1st race Selections ..
1. Odds: 3.06 Stake: 3.27
2. Odds: 4.6 Stake: 2.17
3. Odds: 6.4 Stake: 1.56

My selections fail to win and I lose my stake of £7.00


2nd race selections (I want to win £10 plus recover my previous losing stake of £7.00)

Selections
1. Odds: 2.1 Stake: 8.10
2. Odds: 2.58 Stake: 6.59
3. Odds: 7.3 Stake: 2.36

The problem is that the dutch bet option would be greyed out in the BA interface as £17.05 would only return £17.00 (Lets assume in this example that the odds are not changing at all so these prices are the only ones available)

As I would be using recovery staking I would want this bet to be placed. (Even though the BA interface would be greyed out). Would I be able to use a triggered betting spreadsheet to place these bets and override the BA interface.?

This doesn't happen very often with the selections and is only really an issue when there one very short priced selection with another fairly short priced selection, but it does occur often enough to be a consideration when paper trading the idea

An example of some other odds ..
Selections
1. Odds: 1.75 Stake: 9.71
2. Odds: 2.38 Stake: 7.14
3. Odds: 30 Stake: 0.57

£17.42 would only payout £17.00 so the dutching option would be greyed out, but I would be confident of one of the first two selections (1.75 and 2.38 ) winning and at least returning my previous stakes, while not completely returning my £10 Aim for the race

So is it possible to override the dutching feature via Excel's triggered betting to make strategy this possible.? (I want to cover 3 selections each time, so dropping one selection from the dutch isn't an option)

Thanks
Hughsiepops

[phrenetic]

Hughsiepops

As long as Excel calculated the dutching options, and therefore knew what value bets to place, then I don't see why not.

Excel will just ask BA to place a series of bets, and I would expect BA to honour that request regardless of outcome.

In essence, BA would not know that dutching was being invoked as it would just see three bets to place.

Alistair

[Vincent]

Hughsiepops

Example : I am Aiming to win £10 per race

1st race Selections ..
1. Odds: 3.06 Stake: 3.27
2. Odds: 4.6 Stake: 2.17
3. Odds: 6.4 Stake: 1.56
My selections fail to win and I lose my stake of £7.00


Before you go any further, how much do you win as per example 1, if for instance selection 1 wins?

Not £10

Win £10 - Stake(3.27) - £2.17 - 1.56 = £3.

corrected stake

1. Odds: 3.06 Stake: 10.91
2. Odds: 4.6 Stake: 7.26
3. Odds: 6.4 Stake: 5.22

Total Stake = £23.38 to win £10.


Vincent

[allgreen]

As I would be using recovery staking I would want this bet to be placed

Hughsiepops, you need to have another think about this. This is illogical. BA is greyed out because it wont place a losing dutch bet. Why would you want to deliberately place a losing bet?

There is no recovery in betting any amount to return a lesser amount. Just adding to your losses.

[Vincent]

Hughsiepops, Allgreen is right, you are trying to dutch the odds that are over-round (+100%) therefore deliberately placing a losing bet.

Example 1 – 70.04% This is under 100% that’s why you can dutch.

Example 2 - 100.08% (0.08% over). No dutch

Example 3 – 102.5% (2.5% over), No dutch


If the odds actually just went below 100% for instance in example 2, and here I have changed 7.3 to 7.4 to give odds of 99.89% your next bet would be in the order of £31,000. If only three runners a garanteed profit, but I don't think you would ever get matched. Now what if there were 4 runners and you didn't back the winner?

Odds stake
2.1 - £14,752.11
2.58 - £12007.53
7.4 - £4.186.41

total £30.946.04 all to win £10 + previous stake £23.38

As Allgreen, said “you need to have another think about this”, You need to understand some basic Maths/pecentages.


Vincent

[hughsiepops]

Oops.

I was using the Winall calculator ( http://www.myzips.com/software/Winall-Calculator.phtml ) and got my Total Stake confused with my Profit. I had posted the figures for a £10 stake ..

1. Odds: 3.06 Stake: 3.27
2. Odds: 4.6 Stake: 2.17
3. Odds: 6.4 Stake: 1.56

I've picked up another web based calculator ( http://www.ukhorseracing.co.uk/tools/Du ... ulator.asp ) that allows me to specify Total Stake OR profit which has put me right

Vincent and AllGreen, Thanks for correcting me on this.

BTW : Is anyone aware of a downloadable Dutching Calculator that will allow me to specify the profit required in a dutch.?

I'm guessing that you could set BA up so that you can use recovery staking with dutched selections.? If a race comes up where BA can not make a profitable dutch (Eg. Due to a very short priced favourite), then BA would simply miss the race and move onto the next.??

Regards
Hughsiepops

[throwmeadisc]

Hi,

I created a simple dutching spreadsheet that calculates two different types of dutch. 1) Fixed Stake Dutching & 2) Target Profit Dutching. It also has an option to do two dutches on one book, which is good for Multibanking if you do that.

I originally created it for Greyhounds so it only has six selections but the formula is expandable so it shouldn't be a problem adding more. You will just need to make sure the totals are adding up correctly.

I am happy to share this with this forum as some people may find it useful. The workbook is unprotected so you can look at any of the formula or change anything you like.

Gary or Mark, please can you let me know if it’s possible to attach the spreadsheet to this thread or put it in some other location?

Cheers.

Al

p.s. Note: Please check all calculations manually, I am not responsible for any mistakes or mis-calculations that may be generated when using this spreadsheet.

[GaryRussell]

Hi,

I created a simple dutching spreadsheet that calculates two different types of dutch. 1) Fixed Stake Dutching & 2) Target Profit Dutching. It also has an option to do two dutches on one book, which is good for Multibanking if you do that.

I originally created it for Greyhounds so it only has six selections but the formula is expandable so it shouldn't be a problem adding more. You will just need to make sure the totals are adding up correctly.

I am happy to share this with this forum as some people may find it useful. The workbook is unprotected so you can look at any of the formula or change anything you like.

Gary or Mark, please can you let me know if it’s possible to attach the spreadsheet to this thread or put it in some other location?

Cheers.

Al

p.s. Note: Please check all calculations manually, I am not responsible for any mistakes or mis-calculations that may be generated when using this spreadsheet.

Email the spreadsheet to gruss@blueyonder.co.uk and I'll upload it to our website and provide you with a link.

[throwmeadisc]

Gary has kinding uploaded the spreadsheet to his server so you can download it from here.

http://www.gruss-software.co.uk/Excel/Dutching.xls

Hope some of you find it useful. Any questions let me know.

Al

p.s. I would be interesting to hear some peoples strategys for dutching if they have any good ones..