excel dutching calculator

[doris_day]

NW. Seems to work fine.
Os, your link isn't working...

[Norwegian Would]

osknows: Not at all ! Quite a perfectionist aren't you - meant positively. Error checking - formatting - R1C1 references ... what more could one ask for.


Thank for all you efforts os: I hope many of the "Grussers" will make good use of the WorkSheet.

[osknows]

Os, your link isn't working...

Seems to be ok here, try this one http://www.mediafire.com/?yyljy0y43cz

[Norwegian Would]

DD: Both links worked for me. I use Firefox browser and it went straight into the downloads tab. I was a bit surprised because mediafire links usually take me to the mediafire web page.

[doris_day]

Last link worked fine.

Thanks to both of you for producing a really useful file....

[TheLongMan]

Hi all,
thank you very much for the dutching sheet.
There is a question I wonder about: Is it possible to limit the stakes in a special manner?
Lets say we have odds as follows:
Horse A:1,89
Horse B:4,36
Horse C:4,56
If I'd like to have a profit of (only) 5 quid I have to set the lucky sum of around 230 quid to get my little profit!!!
That's much too risky in my opinion! Is there a possibility to leave such races alone?
Lets say if I have to stake more than 25 in a race I dont like to bet?

[osknows]

On the file I posted up I don't think the triggers are set up to fire based on the dutching calcs (unless Norwegian Would's better file does?). It was left for whoever downloaded to do this for themselves.

It should be relatively straight forward to ensure your trigger will only fire if you're total liability (cell F55) is either a fixed amount or a function of the target profit.

If you get stuck and need some help let me know what you want to achieve and I'll help

[Bumble]

Hello,

I've had a quick go at this and essentially it is a little tricky I think, I've got a working solution for a fixed number of selections but if you need changes you need to figure out a way to change the formulae by either VBA or dynamic ranges. My approach is to consider each selection as a simultaneous equation

So for 4 selections where O is odds and S is stake

Eq1. (O1-1)S1 - S2 - S3 - S4 = 15
Eq1. (O2-1)S2 - S1 - S3 - S4 = 15
Eq1. (O3-1)S3 - S1 - S2 - S4 = 15
Eq1. (O4-1)S4 - S1 - S2 - S3 = 15

In excel you can use MMULT and MINVERSE as array functions to solve these equations

See http://www.duncanwil.co.uk/simult.html for a simple explanation and here is a link to my example using 4 selections http://www.mediafire.com/?mwhnux0mzim

You will need to figure out how best to change the range depeending on how many selections you choose.....

All the best Os

Many thanks for this osknows (and also to Norwegian Would) this has been a very interesting discussion. I'm new to Gruss and have been experimenting.

With osknows' dutch laying worksheet (VB version) I've attached it to Gruss excel download to work with the current market prices. It seems that the calculated stakes often come out in red, negative numbers. In osknows' example they are black, positive numbers.

I just wanted to check my interpretation. If the calculated stakes come out as negative, is this because solution of the simultaneous equations is showing that a dutch lay cannot be profitable at these prices?

I've also noticed that sometimes that dutch backing calculation shows a negative profit (this seems to be tied to a book % > 100%). Any insights into the different scenarios on these would be welcome. Many thanks.

[osknows]

To be honest I don't really use the spreadsheet so haven't researched possible outputs. I believe if the stake is negative then the combination of odds won't allow for the target profit to be achieved using real positive value stakes.

What I'm unsure of though is if there are scenarios where mutliple solutions to the simultaneous equations are possible? This is just speculation, but it may be posssible to have 3 solutions to the same set of equations, one could give target profit for reasonable risk, one could give target profit for massive risk and one could give negatives...

Not sure where I'd start to find this out though...

[r_ivica]

i tryed all this excel samples distributed here on forum and didn't find the answer to my problem, or i am not looking it right.

Here it is showing it on example:

I have this situation (all before match starts):
ManUtd -74
Draw +218
Arsenal +324

and now i want to green up this situation by using excel

BF odds are (back/lay):
ManUtd 1,4/1,41
Draw 4,1/4,2
Arsenal 7/7,2

so i want to input in excel manually situation which i have on betfair according to this example so that excel calculates how to green up this to get each way equal profit.
(all numbers want to input manually, no need for auto refreshing prices etc.)

Please help me providing me some excel example for this.
Thanks for help

[osknows]

Here it is showing it on example:

I have this situation (all before match starts):
ManUtd -74
Draw +218
Arsenal +324

This doesn't look like dutching to me, it looks like you've layed Man U then placed another bet on either Arsenal to win or layed the Draw?
The files on this thread won't help with this.

[r_ivica]

well, yes, before this situtation was several different bets.
now need to equal profit with this situation

do you have any idea where to find this solution?
i looked everywhere with no luck

[osknows]

Gary has a solution here http://gruss-software.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=4659 which relies on all previous bets in the market being known. This is by far the easiest way to do what you need.

I don't think it's possible to solve as a single equation when the original positions are unknown since the difference in stake, odds and position of the original bets cannot always be resolved by a single position to give equal profit.

Here is an example spreadsheet which creates 3 positions and then summed to give a known overall position as in your question; Without knowing your original bets I tried to get something similar but the -£74, £218 & £324 figues are different in my example.

Trying to solve gives you 6 possible positions each of which have 3 simultaneous equations which cannot be solved to an equal profit. I believe sensitivity analysis is the only way to solve these where you have to decide:
a) likely event outcome
b) how much profit you want to weight for each outcome

There may well be a way to solve these equations but would need someone smarter than me I'm afraid. Anyone else have any ideas?

http://www.mediafire.com/?jmioyzog0yi

[jokerjoe]

I'd say there were only three possible variables as it doesn't make sense to both back and lay at the same time. Unfortunately that means you then have a function to convert the new position to either a back or a lay, which makes solving pretty hard. I'm not sure how you would solve it in a closed form.

Fortunately you can always use Solver. It has a few quirks, in this example you need to wipe the variable cells and run twice to get the results. That could prob be fixed.

http://www.mediafire.com/?dodtzgngnzn

[osknows]

That's a really neat method jokerjoe, thanks. I'd never used the solver before.