Bookmaking Maths

[manager1]

The horse was Penang Princess FYI.

Just got Tittle rolled also

[joe lively]

Yes I was on Penang Princess also, I layed at 7.40 IP.

[manager1]

Well done, I gone ripped off then!



These sort of results really fire you up and you wonder why you ever doubted it - but sooner or later a string of winners forces you to reality.

However, it's the end result that counts and longterm I'm at 120% ROI after paying 4% commission.

[joe lively]

Yes I think i'm due a couple of winners on the trot. But like you said i'm in for the long haul.

The way I proved it last year was to back the shorteners, and I did my proverbials

lol couple of weeks ago I came up with an in running system using excel, I actually came up with it whilst lying awake at night.

To cut a long story short my idea was that when the IP back side drops below 98% then something short is on the move out and there is some value with one of the shorter prices

Needless to say by the end of racing that day I had as you say done my "proverbials"

[manager1]

Great minds think alike Joe.
One would assume that if you only backed favourites, or any horse for that matter, that was running well (hadn't missed the start, hadn't got a knock in running and had a decent position and was making a move or running in front) you'd have to win.

Well, some of them always find a way to get beat - lucky for us eh?

[joe lively]

Diriculous matched soon as the market turned IP at 2.5, finished 3rd. official SP 2.86.

[laffo16]

hey guys, sorry to intrude ^^, so am i to understand this correctly, once the market goes in-play you lay all selections at 10% less then the odds last given by ladys. then cancel all remaining bets after the first bet is matched?

so would 7.0 at ladys, be layed at 6.3?

[joe lively]

In a nutshell yes, I use 10% but I think Manager uses a different calculation, he's probably better postioned to answer that part.

The idea is to lay below bookies odds by taking advantage of over enthusiatic backers early in the race or the fluctuations as the market goes in play.

The 7:20 at kempton tonight was a good example, Within a second of the market going in play i was able to lay Adorn at 1.64, the bookies SP was 1.83. Granted the bloody thing went on to win but it doesn't matter because long term laying below bookies sp we should show a profit.

[laffo16]

right i see unfortunate with that one!

when exactly do your make the bets, just before the off? with using the IP (carry onto in-play trigger). or actually once the race has gone in-play.

[joe lively]

Now my trigger places my bets as soon as the market goes In Play, I normally get matched in the first few seconds, far too early for the race to take shape. I used to place bets at 00:00:00 but found I sometimes got matched on a steamer and end up paying above sp.

Anyway if your interested here are todays results from Kempton, unfortunate that most the racing was abondoned today, still Wolverhampton to go later.

2:20:
Kylnch layed @ 20. sp was 26.
Square eddie layed @ 9.4 sp was 10
2:50:
Many volumes layed @ 3.5. sp was 3.5
3.25:
Cape hawk layed @ 11. sp was 12
4:00:
Captain Ramius layed @ 2.7. sp was 2.88
4:30:
Minus fifteen layed @ 12. sp was 13
5:00:
Precision break layed @ 5.6. sp was 6
5:30:
Dawn Sky layed @ 19.5 sp was 21
Black Gin layed @ 15.5 sp was 17

As you can see sometimes more than one gets matched. The above has shown a small loss today but this should give you some idea what i'm doing. I expect losing days we'll see how it looks this time next week.

Also I think 10% below sp is too much, I was working to 6% today.

Onto Wolverhampton

[KevinTHFC]

Interesting thread guys.

Have you factored comission on your winning bets into your thoughts ?

Kevin

[joe lively]

I think manager1 said somewhere that he is looking at 120% ROI after paying 4% commission.

The way i'm looking at is that the bookies overround is something like 2-3% per horse then 5% for the book (please correct me if this wrong ) plus the 6% i'm addding in, then minus bf commision, what is left is my profit. A small percentage, but long term with a decent bank should be worth while.

Incidently yesterday finished in profit following the late meeting at wolverhampton

[xraymitch]

Just discovered this conversation while having a break from playing with Excel over the last five hours.

When I can get my brain together ( I am still dazed from my attempts at writing macros ) I woud like to check this out further.

Nice one guys

Cheers,

Ray

[dgs2001]

Great thread guys

I'm interested to know if people using this method have noticed any hiccups or problems in the last 10 days or so as more people try this out?.

Duncan

[stateless]

Great thread guys

I'm interested to know if people using this method have noticed any hiccups or problems in the last 10 days or so as more people try this out?.

Duncan

I've only just starting using it, and had a similiar concern. In theory if more and more people are mopping up any "outlier" type prices early in the race, surely eventually the prices being taken will in fact be pretty much price-to-chance, or eventually worse still prices which could be thought to be generous. I could be wrong of course, but this is something that came to mind. I'm thinking aloud.