Horse Racing Places Odds Calculator

[mrprobit]

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[mrprobit]

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[mrprobit]

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[mrprobit]

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[knot]

why not just use it for yourself if its a money maker ?

[dgs2001]

A very swish looking website & program.
May I ask which software/web developement tools it was built with.

Duncan

[mrprobit]

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[mrprobit]

why not just use it for yourself if its a money maker ?

a logical question, but I have not claimed that it makes or money or is any kind of system.

I prefer to call it a tool, which can be used by people in different ways as an aid to their betting strategies.

However unlike "systems" that are regularly advertised, the program works on proven research that these models give a better indication of the place odds than any other methods (see efficiency of racetrack betting markets by ziemba and hausch for further reading).

The formulas are publicly available, I'm just making them more accessable to the wider audience. unlike the calcodds or others that work on proven flawed place odds formula (i.e. harville) I'm also selling this on a one off permanent basis rather than a "service".

One could ask the same about this site, if the gruss is api is such a moneymaker why does gary not keep it to himself ? the answer should be fairly obvious that the api does not guarantee making money, it's how it's used that determines that. I'd prefer to see my program in the same vein.

Like everyone else here, I'm sure that you have all found that the internet has totally revolutinsed betting and made professional gambling a realistic full time career. However myself, I have found that as markets have become more efficient thay are harder to extract any money out of and that margins are much tighter, a margin that can be easily wiped out by the shenigans at betfair.

for me the rewards of gambling on betfair (or anywhere else) are too tight for me now, however the program or others I have in the pipeline might be another weapon in the armoury of some the users here (or elsewhere) that will increase your margin or even keep you in the game.

so therefore my aim is to make money by selling programs such as this, but I'll be honest there is a longer term vision to this. I know selling this is not going to make me a rich man, but I am hoping to set up a business providing modelling services and selling software like this to the betting industry and people like yourselves here. This is where I beleive the long term profits are for me.

The big bookmakers are beginning to take mathematical & statistical modelling very seriously and this is very much an infant industry which I want to get into.

For example 3 major bookmakers are using sportingindex to provide modelling services as they lack the expertise and personnel to do this on their own.

Last september skybet set up a modelling department by recruiting a load of maths graduates, however none of them had any experience or knowledge of the betting industry.

even betfair have been looking at modelling for their traders in malta to actively trade their own markets, or to use betfair speak "manage liabilities"

This area is something I enjoy from an intellectual perspective as well as just making money. I have been offered positons by all of the companies above and would have taken any of them had they came up with a reasonable wage offer. so I am going to give it go going on my own. I might make it, I might not, If I don't then at least I would have made at least some money doing something I enjoy.

For those who have seen my website, you will see that I am not just going to try and make a few quid through my programs, but am Hoping my website becomes the number 1 resource for mathematical gamblers like yourselves on here.

[2020vision]

Good Luck mrprobit I for one wish you well - Michael

[mrprobit]

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[mrprobit]

The place odds calculator supports triggered betting.

on the "Gruss" sheet the column Trigger, Odds, Stakes etc are linked to the "place sheet" where the odds are downloaded from Gruss.

you can link the outputs on the same page from the model to determine conditions as to when to place bets from the calculator as you would do normally.

There is an error on this sheet in that it is not showing Bet ref, Bet time etc from the Place sheet. I've corrected this now and will upload it later.

also there is a problem on the front sheet in that the kelly level cant be changed, this will be corrected as well.

[mrprobit]

Am I Talking to myself here ?

[2020vision]

Hi mrprobit

you are not talking to yourself. But I am more into dogs than horses and
I do not quite get the hang of Excel and triggered betting - wish I could!

If I had your programming talents I could make a fortune!

In the meantime it is possible that others may need a little more time
to get to grips with this idea? I wish I could get my head around it.

All the best - Michael

[Captain Sensible]

Am I Talking to myself here ?

Quite possibly, I'd be interested to see how often your predicted prices fall outside the betfair odds to any worthwhile amount. With the place odds separate to win odds on betfair I'd imagine they'd be just as efficient and most of the market makers would be using the same principles as yourself as like you say they are widely available.

I'm not saying it's pointless exercise but unless it throws up reliable pricing errors within the markets it may just not prove to be a profitable one. Might be worth you turning your efforts into highlighting the arbing side of the place markets as although the PC does make arbing riskier these days there are opportunities to profit fom the inefficiencies thrown up by the bookies set rules of 1/4 odds etc.

[mrprobit]

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