Shifting Market Behaviour - what does it take?

[Joe68]

Hey guys,
so I've got a particular strategy under yoke and am trying to drive it, but...

The pre-testing and early profits were very encouraging - excellent actual relative profits 3 days in 5 - yet it now has had no profit for a week.

The pre-testing showed similar behaviour to those early results outlined above, but the strategy appears to have changed behaviour. Appearances can be deceiving.

Of course, the pre-testing and early profits may have been statistical aberrations - I don't have the historical data for extensive back testing.

However, I have a lurking thought that my participation may have shifted market behaviour. That is, by making bets and profits, other participants may have responded with altered behaviour such that my strat stops. On the other hand, in absolute terms, my bets have been minuscule, all sub minimum.

So, my question - what does it take to shift market behaviour in these BF markets? I'm hoping that experienced minds might have insight.

[wizardofmann]

Certainly an awful lot more than a sub minimum bet placement, that's for sure! A outlandish and a totally theoretical figure plucked from the sky, I would say about ten clicks of the mouse @ £10,000 but that would depend on the liquidity of the market of course, plus many other factors.

[Joe68]

On long odds, in play UK horse racing?

[wizardofmann]

I only do in-play, UK and Irish horse racing market.

[Captain Sensible]

It really depends on what your strategy involves, obviously on the more liquid parts of the market you'd need large amounts to shift the markets but if you're playing on the outside odds with hidden bets (i.e. sub minimum on unoccupied price points) then I wouldn't be surprised if people are front running you with more advanced 'bot's' because plenty of people are active in that 'hidden' arena.

[Joe68]

Thanks for the thoughts fellas.