Should've put this in the original post but the forum won't let me edit it now, so adding it here. For context, the tennis prediction algorithm I mentioned is the one I've been checking my pre-match BA selections against, just so you can see the kind of win-probability output I mean. Still keen to hear how others wire external probabilities into their triggers rather than trading purely off the market.
(Link removed - please get in touch with Gary or Mark directly for permission if you wish to promote external services - thanks)